After the day 33 of LaLigaand with the title practically sentenced, the entire emotion is now concentrating on fight for relegation. He ‘Catenazo‘ in it 90+9‘to knock down the Sevillethe comeback of the Alavés before him Majorca with doublet of Toni Martinez and the suffered victory of the Elche in it Carlos Tartiere They have compressed the lower area even more. The fight is red hot and there are many teams that, missing five days, they continue looking of sideways to Second.
The almost saved
He Opta supercomputer places Osasuna and Athletic Club like the two teams with fewer chances of falling to silver status. The Navarrese team, which defeated Seville with that agonizing amount of catenait barely has a 0.1% of possibilities to finish 18th and, in fact, it is already looking more towards Europe than down. The other team that remains below the 1% is he Athleticwhich despite fall 3-1 in it Metropolitan maintains a sufficient margin and remains in a 0.25%.
The fight for relegation begins from the fringe
The real fight for avoid he decline starts from Rayo Vallecano, eleventh ranked and still relatively close to the red zone. The set red-friedafter the controversial 3-3 before the RealSocietymaintains a 2.60% of options to download. A low percentage, but one that reflects that it still cannot be neglected. His calendaryes, it seems something more favorable than that of others rivals: Getafe out, Girona at home, Valencia out, Villarreal in home and Alavés in Mendizorroza to close the season.
Just behind appears the Valenciathe team with less likely of decline among last tenwith a 1.53%. The victory by 2-1 before him Girona It gave him air and also the calendar invites you to think that you have arguments for save yourself. Those of Mestalla they will play three games at home: Atlético de Madrid, Rayo Vallecano and Barcelona in the last dayapparently without too much at stake. Outside they will have to visit San Mames and Anoeta. A demanding closure, but with room to depend on themselves.
He Spanishon the other hand, has been very marked by a 2026 disastrous what has away of the european dream and has put him fully into the struggle for the permanence. The parakeet group drags a 4.62% of relegation options just before their matchday 33 duel against the Levanta match that can greatly influence the outcome of both. Afterwards, his roadmap gives no respite: real Madrid in home, Seville outside in a direct duel, Athletic Club at home, Osasuna out and Royal Society in home.
Below the 10% they also appear Elche and Girona. The Elche team has reacted in time and, with three consecutive victorieshas achieved go out of the well and open a small gap with respect to the descent. Right now it is four points above the red zone and its percentage is located in the 5.78%. He has a very demanding calendar left, but with several confrontations that can decide everything: Celtic out, Alavés in home, Betis out, Getafe in home and Girona in Montilivi. Precisely that final direct duel against Girona It is one of the factors that supercomputer takes into account to grant the Catalan team a 5.61%somewhat less than Elche despite his defeat of this day before the Valencia.
The real drama
From there begins the real drama. There is five teams that exceed the 20% of probabilities of lower. He first is he Alavésthat tough to go back to the Majorca remains very committed, with a 23.32%. The victory gave him oxygenYes, but it doesn’t get you out of fight. Your calendar mixes requirement and direct duels of enormous value: Elche out, Athletic in home, Real Oviedo away, Barcelona in home and Rayo Vallecano in home to close the League.
Odds of OPTA supercomputer declineOPTA
According to these calculations, the next team what is would save would be the Majorcaalthough still with a 26.73% of possibilities of decline. The defeat before him Alavés It was a hard blow, especially because it allowed a direct rival close the gap. Even so, the vermilion team continues out of the decline and faces a calendar full of key games: Girona out, Villarreal in home, Getafe out, lift out and Real Oviedo at home. Three direct confrontations that can completely determine your destiny.
In relegation positions both the Levant like him Sevillewith a 64.95% and a 65.61% respectively. The granotas They still have to close matchday 33 against the Spanishin a duel that can trigger or greatly reduce that percentage. Afterwards, the end of the course will not be easy: Villarreal out, Celtic out, Betis out, Osasuna in home and Majorca at home. A calendar very treacherouswith several confrontations in view of teams that are played Europe and others who also they fight by survive.
The situation of the Sevillefor its part, has complicated long after the defeat in Pamplona. The goal of catena in it 90+9′ let touched to the Seville team, which put fully in the mess and with a unfriendly calendar past: Real Sociedad at home, Spanish at home in a direct duel, Villarreal out, real Madrid in home and Celtic out. A very tough closing for a team that no longer has room for more setbacks.
The carbayón miracle
and the case more extreme is that of Real Oviedo. The set Asturian rub the mathematical descent, with a 98.99% probability of falling. The defeat before him Elche was a golden opportunity to get involved in the fight, but he left it escape and now the salvation seems almost a chimera. Not only for the distance with respect to permanence, but also for the calendar What awaits you: Betis out, Getafe in home, Real Madrid out, Alavés in home and Mallorca outside. A journey full of curves for a team that, furthermore, probably no longer depends on itself.
He closing of LaLiga, therefore, promises a fierce battle. With the championship almost decided, the focus shifts to a compressed lower zone, full of direct duels and crossed calendars.
