He barrel of oil Brent has come to a spectacular halt in the international markets and has set its price right on the border of the 95 dollarsa figure that gives us a break (it is not known whether it lasts or not) after a bad streak for our pocket every time we refuel fuel or we buy things that have to be transported (that is, everything). The collapse responds to advances in peace negotiations in the Middle East, which seems to have finally brought some calm to investors.
a lot of oil
This hope that sea routes in the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened comes when companies were already prepared slowing down your productionso global oil demand had fallen. Thanks to this, the refineries seem to ‘breathe’ with relief in the face of a generous supply of oil that is beginning to far exceed the most pessimistic forecasts.
We already know that if there is cheap oil, there is cheap gasoline (although the latter does not arrive instantly). The question is how much It will take time for us to notice this blessed decrease in our own pockets, either because of what we save at the gas station or because of what they stop charging us at the supermarkets, and at what prices the fuel will remain.
Today a VAT reduction of 10% is maintained.
To date, the Government maintains the VAT reduced to 10% for fuels, a reduction that is quite noticeable compared to the 21% which we pay regularly. At the moment this help will only be active until June 30but it is true that the executive has not said that he will then conclude it, but rather that will review itin case it is necessary to continue with it. In any case, the important thing is that thanks to this the current prices are more bearable, with rates that are around 1.51 euros for gasoline 95, 1.60 euros on 98 and approximately 1.67 euros for automotive diesel (not for professional vehicles). They are still high prices, but they are distanced from those rates of 2 euros/liter that threatened to paralyze road transport a few months ago.
Agreements from months ago
For this drop in Brent crude to translate into an effective reduction at the pumps at your neighborhood gas station, several things must happen first. The first temporal barrier lies in the operation of the contracts themselves, in which delivery times are agreed upon months in advance. The oil that is refined today was purchased several weeks ago at prices that had not had this drop. So first you have to deplete those stocks of more expensive oil before the cheaper one reaches the refineries.
Later, refineries must transform this oil into fuel suitable for your car or motorcycle, and this includes a series of expenses that are fixedregardless of whether the price of oil rises or falls.
The ‘feather effect’ prevents the reduction in what we pay from being immediate.
When the fuel is ready at the pump, the gas stations apply what is called ‘feather effect’something that many users find infuriating: prices at the pump rose at rocket speed when the price of oil rose, but instead They descend with the exasperating slowness of a feather floating in the air when the price of crude oil experiences drops.
The big oil companies defend this behavior by alleging the need to safeguard your profit margins in the face of future adverse fluctuations in the international market. They also justify the slowness in the reduction due to the high replacement costs of the general fuel inventory.
Effective discount
If this geopolitical situation remains firm in the coming weeks (which with Donald Trump in the North American Government is not guaranteed), we can expect prices to drop at gas stations within a period of between 10 and 14 business days. That is, for the weeks of June 8 or 15. By then, it is estimated that 95 octane gasoline could drop to 1.35 euros/liter in the majority of autonomous communities, while diesel would experience an adjustment that would leave its price at about 1.38 euros/liter. Of course, we must take into account that after the Government could decide to end the reduction of VAT on fuel, which would again raise its price.
