Franchises moving into utterly totally different instructions sq. off Thursday when the Baltimore Ravens host the Jacksonville Jaguars.
For Baltimore (4-4), issues actually could not get any worse. On the primary play in his first recreation again from damage, quarterback Lamar Jackson suffered a thumb damage in opposition to Buffalo that would sideline him the remainder of the season. Shortly after his exit, backup quarterback Tyler Huntley exited with a toe damage that may knock out for the rest of the marketing campaign.
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There was hypothesis Baltimore may maintain a fireplace sale regardless of being .500 on the season, however that got here to an abrupt halt when it was reported it was making a commerce for Jacoby Brissett. The Arizona Cardinals QB was benched in favor of Gardner Minshew in Arizona’s time beyond regulation win in opposition to Dallas, making him expendable. And the Ravens got here calling for the veteran.
As for his or her opponents, quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Co. flew again throughout the pond after two video games in London. After struggling a 34-31 defeat versus Houston, the Jaguars (5-2) dropped the hammer on the Indianapolis Colts in a 42-7 blowout. They’re now three video games away from the Texans within the AFC South.
Sportsbooks have just about settled on Jacksonville as an enormous 10-point street favourite, with some 9.5 numbers sitting on the market. There’s extra fluctuation on the overall, with the quantity displaying up between 39.5 and 40.5.
Let’s check out this showdown in Baltimore and see the place we will discover some betting worth in a recreation that forecasts to be a really one-sided confrontation.
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Contents
Jacksonville Jaguars (-10, 40.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Large accidents have clearly beset the Baltimore offense with the lack of each Jackson and Huntley. Nevertheless, Jacksonville does not boast the healthiest assault both.
Large receiver Jakobi Meyers is not at 100%, plus working backs Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. are coping with varied illnesses. It appears like Rodriguez shall be good to go, however Tuten’s availability stays in query.
Jacksonville, which has seen 4 of its final 5 street video games go below the overall, might be coping with a little bit of a journey hangover and we would have a low-scoring recreation on deck. Baltimore could have bother shifting the ball with third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano.
I am backing the overall to remain below the quantity. Baltimore goes to need to get tremendous inventive on offense in its try to manage time of possession and preserve the Jacksonville offense off the sphere. And I believe the Ravens can do this with Henry and an conservative recreation plan.
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Wager: Underneath 40.5 (-118, DraftKings)
Participant props
RB Justice Hill 3+ receptions (+102) | 4+ receptions | 15+ receiving yards (-102) | 20+ receiving yards (+154) | 25+ receiving yards (+225)
Fagnano goes to really feel the warmth all through the night time when he is below middle, so what does that imply?
I believe it requires an enormous night time from Justice Hill.
The Ravens’ third-down and receiving again has had a minimum of three receptions in three consecutive video games, together with a season-high 4 in final week’s loss at Buffalo. Hill has additionally had a minimum of 20 yards receiving in three of his final 5 contests.
With a brief week and Baltimore nonetheless caught with Fagnano at starter, I imagine Hill shall be seeing loads of motion. He’s the plain security valve for Fagnano, plus he has the flexibility to interrupt display screen passes for some potential huge positive aspects.
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I am placing collectively a few ladder performs on Hill tied to his receptions and receiving yards. Baltimore goes to search out itself in loads of third down-and-long conditions, which ought to result in an enormous efficiency from Hill.
QB Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing TDs (-122, FanDuel)
Lawrence, who was one in all my preseason worth picks for NFL MVP, has been stable to say the least. He is thrown 17 landing passes in opposition to simply 4 interceptions, racking up slightly below 1,700 yards within the course of.
Now, Lawrence faces a Baltimore protection ranked the sixth worst in opposition to the move and that gave up 71 factors in its losses in opposition to Cincinnati and Buffalo. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen mixed for six touchdowns by way of the air in these defeats.
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Lawrence has cleared this quantity 5 instances in seven video games, together with the aforementioned matchups in opposition to Houston (4) and Indianapolis (three) in London.
My intestine feeling is head coach Liam Coen goes to attempt to put this recreation out of attain within the first half, which implies he’ll open up the playbook for Lawrence and his receiving corps. Combining that with the very fact Tuten is questionable with ankle/foot points and I may see Lawrence reward backers of this prop play within the first half.
Anytime TD scorers
RB Derrick Henry (+125, FanDuel)
To say Henry goes to need to shoulder the majority of Baltimore’s offensive load is an understatement. Head coach Jesse Minter has to hope his marquee working again can get one thing going for an offense severely hamstrung at quarterback.
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Henry has usually struggled this season, averaging simply 4.0 yards per carry. He hasn’t discovered a lot success on the bottom of late, dashing for 58 yards or fewer in his final three video games in opposition to Cleveland, Cincinnati and Buffalo.
Henry’s current numbers do not encourage pleasure, however we’re not specializing in his dashing whole. We’re simply in search of a landing, which he has 9 of this season.
Baltimore will discover its means into the purple zone sooner or later. Possibly it is off an enormous run or move play. Maybe it comes by way of a Jacksonville turnover. Whatever the scenario, I can not move up getting Henry at plus cash in a recreation the place the Ravens are going to rely closely on their star.
TE Nate Boerkircher (+500, FanDuel)
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This would possibly appear like a random, shot-in-the-dark betting angle, however that is not the case.
Drafted within the second spherical of this 12 months’s NFL draft, Boerkircher has been getting extra reps on this Jacksonville offense. The rookie tight finish out of Texas A&M is used extra as a blocker, however Lawrence has had no problem concentrating on him the final two video games.
Living proof in final week’s win in opposition to Indianapolis, the place Boerkircher acquired unfastened on a route and Lawrence linked with him on a play-action move for a 31-yard landing. That marked Boerkircher’s second consecutive recreation hitting paydirt, placing him on my radar.
Brenton Unusual (+240 ATD) is the logical landing angle right here and I shall be utilizing him as properly, however getting this spicy quantity on Boerkircher is simply too good to move up.
