Fantasy Soccer: The worst decide you may make in Rounds 9-12 of drafts in 2026

Life replace: I am coaching for the Air Drive Marathon that is occurring in a couple of weeks. To be clear, I am doing the half marathon. I did Chicago’s full again in ’22, and my knees have not forgiven me but. Regardless, I needed to offer a long-distance occasion one other shot. 

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However I could not simply get out and trot 13.1 miles. Imagine me, I attempted. And wound up sucking wind after at least three. It has been little runs which have helped. Shorter distances each couple of days have been the important thing to rebuilding my stamina. And any missed follow runs have resulted in setbacks as I attempt to meet my objective.

Picks within the later rounds (Rounds 9-12) have an analogous energy over our roster. One “Alec Pierce” or “RJ Harvey” is not going to show your season round. However if you happen to string sufficient of them collectively, you might end up enjoying for a title. The other is probably going true as properly. So, let’s examine what profiles we must always keep away from and who suits the outline for 2026.

Go right here for Half II of this collection, the worst picks of Rounds 5-8. This is additionally Half I, the worst picks of the primary 4 rounds.

Each Little Bit Helps

First, let’s suppose by the kind of participant we’re on the lookout for at this level within the draft. I am going to use our earlier phases as a information:

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• Rounds 1-4: anchors of our roster; assured weekly starters

• Rounds 5-8: fringe RB/WR 2s or 3s; lineup resolution may very well be match-up primarily based

We’re previous all that now. Our focus ought to be on including depth to our squads. At worst, we’re on the lookout for receivers or rushers whom we might rotate in to cowl a bye week or a short-term damage. However the preferrred situation is discovering that diamond within the tough. We would like the following Luther Burden III, but to seek out the fantasy highlight. In both case, since we’re reducing the bar of expectation, our threshold for a bust additionally has to slip.

A flat top-48 cutoff places us within the “non-weekly contributor however bench viable” neck of the woods. Typically you may discover a 2024 Chase Brown. Or you may land on a 2023 Quentin Johnston. However once more, a single choice (possible) will not alter your season. It is the buildup of picks on this space that may give your staff the endurance it must get by 4 months of motion.

However the bust charges alone do not inform the complete story.

I am hoping that is apparent, nevertheless it bears repeating: we will not predict accidents. Regardless that they comprise almost 80% of the pattern, me telling you to not click on on a man who’ll get damage helps no one. Though, utilizing a couple of historic examples, there’s a slight sample we might comply with. 

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• 2024: Jonathan Brooks – tore his ACL throughout his ultimate yr at Texas, delaying his debut till Week 12; he re-injured the identical knee two weeks later.

• 2023: Michael Thomas – spent the offseason recovering from surgical procedures to take away surgical {hardware} from his foot.

• 2023: Elijah Mitchell – suffered a groin/abductor pressure throughout coaching camp, forcing him to overlook three weeks of follow.

• 2021: Curtis Samuel – beat studies confirmed the then-Commanders’ WR already coping with a groin pressure sustained throughout OTAs; he missed minicamp and was on the PUP listing.

On the one hand, attempting to take an damage low cost on a participant with a path to an above-replacement-level alternative share ought to be part of our roster-building course of at this stage of the draft. The worth of a mistake has lessened. If their athleticism returns, we win. However the indicators in the course of the non-points-scoring portion of the yr ought to be our strongest indicators of who carries essentially the most danger. And we have seen how the hazard performs out.

I dug into a lot of the damage instances the place the participant returned in the course of the season. Fortunately, in some instances, we obtained a rise in touches or targets. Basically, their job went unchanged. However the reverse was true most of the time. Merely put, we’re attempting to hit a multi-leg parlay, one that features the participant sustaining a clear invoice of well being, the staff needing them to fill a task nonetheless and their capability to supply with the ball of their arms. However nonetheless, it is the “wholesome” bust instances that give us the clearest understanding of what to keep away from.

Let’s have a look at if this chart passes the sniff take a look at.

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Rookie RBs with any kind of projectable position would not have an ADP this late. And I am prepared to chalk up the dearth of a collapse in ecosystem as a sample-size-driven end result. On the flip facet, seeing first-year receivers wrestle to seek out their method on the skilled stage (i.e., accounting for 43% of the bust instances) has its deserves. If they’d earned Day 1 and even early Day 2 capital, we might make sure of their worth to the staff. Coupled with a smattering of modifications in QB or scheme, the anomaly of the place at this stage of the draft performs out in our bust charges.

Now, with all that in thoughts, we are able to flip to 2026 for one of the best (worst?) candidates to let people choose.

Spherical 9: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers

So, it was a story of two seasons for Chuba Hubbard in 2025.

The excellent news was Hubbard appeared like he was able to construct on his breakout marketing campaign the yr prior. By means of three weeks, he had a vice grip on the backfield with 67% of the carries and over half of the goal-line totes. However a nagging calf damage opened the door for Rico Dowdle. Afterward, anybody who purchased into Hubbard’s resurgence needed to make different plans.

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• Dashing Share (Weeks 7-18): 33% (Hubbard), 62% (Dowdle)

• Purpose-line Share: 20%, 80%

Dowdle took the job and (actually) ran off with it. And waiting for 2026, the identical situation seems to be enjoying out in entrance of us. Jonathon Brooks seems just like the RB1 Carolina needed once they drafted him in 2024. The well being of their offensive line is, at greatest, a query mark. And Hubbard himself simply returned to follow from a hamstring pressure that pressured him to overlook a number of weeks of coaching camp. He checks nearly each field for a possible bust, and the state of affairs alone is sufficient to keep away from this yr.

Spherical 10: J.Okay. Dobbins, Broncos

Actually, we are able to lengthen the identical logic of who to keep away from into the tenth spherical.

J.Okay. Dobbins is the Mike Evans of RBs. When wholesome, they’re probably the greatest at their place. Final season was no exception. By means of 10 weeks, Dobbins was one among 9 rushers with a hit charge over 50% and simply one among seven with a double-digit explosive play charge. All of this after an MCL sprain whereas with the Chargers. Nevertheless, this is not the primary time we have handled seeing a “Q”, “O” or “IR” subsequent to his identify.

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Dobbins is but to see a full season. However I am going to play the a part of the wishful thinker right here and assume he is lively because the Broncos safe their playoff spot. Denver drafted Jonah Coleman, who has an analogous bodily working fashion to Dobbins. RJ Harvey already has the pass-down job. There’s even much less of a must experience the oft-injured, soon-to-be-28-year-old rusher if HC Sean Payton can lean on his protection and youthful expertise to shut out video games. It is good that Dobbins is promising he’ll be wholesome all season. However the NFL has a behavior of breaking guarantees as soon as the motion begins.

Spherical 11: Courtland Sutton, Broncos

If there’s one advice out of this group that I would like a mulligan on by season’s finish, it is right here.

I am prepared to confess that the addition of Jaylen Waddle, a younger and environment friendly WR, takes the shine off a 30-year-old receiver. However that is the tagline. The actual case towards Sutton will get actual whenever you look underneath the hood with regard to Bo Nix’s passing numbers.

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• EPA per Dropback (no strain): 0.32 (MoF), 0.28 (Boundary)

• Completion Proportion: 76.3%, 69.1%

• YAC per Completion: 5.9, 5.2

We are able to see a minor however noticeable enchancment when Nix stayed towards the center of the sector. Certain, Sutton commanded a lot of the targets in that space (16.9%). However the X-receiver nonetheless ran essentially the most routes on the surface. Plus, I would be prepared to guess that swapping the likes of Troy Franklin (14.0% MoF goal share), Pat Bryant (11.0%) and Marvin Mims Jr. (9.9%) for Waddle would enhance Nix’s output. 

Nix began getting again to his school roots over the again half of ’25. His aDOT dipped by a full yard, however all of his effectivity metrics crept ahead. So whereas Sutton should still be the first man, the added competitors solely clouds his fantasy outlook. 

Spherical 12: Jordan Addison, Vikings

I do not suppose there’s any query relating to the forms of performs Jordan Addison and Kyler Murray will join on in ’26.

Throughout the 2023 and 2024 seasons, Addison ranks eleventh in yards per route run on throws of 20 air yards or extra (6.28). His blazing velocity makes his air-yard share on these makes an attempt being bigger than Justin Jefferson’s (36.4% vs 35.1%) an unsurprising stat. And incomes seems on these forms of performs is precisely what would vault a receiver from a bench-level asset to a weekly FLEX choice. However we additionally want extra of a ground.

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• Goal Share (< 15 air yards, 2023-2024): 15.0%, third (amongst all MIN pass-catchers)

• Targets per Route Run: 15.9%, fifth 

• Goal Fee in Apparent Passing Conditions: 15.4%, third 

I am ignoring 2025 as the mixture of J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer was a real anchor on the offense. Regardless, Addison has been the low man on the totem pole exterior of the splash performs. To make issues worse, the QB change is not an entire win for the fourth-year receiver.

• 2022: 20.4% (Goal Fee to TEs)

In fact, gamers earn their targets. And when you have expertise like Zach Ertz and Trey McBride out working routes, they will demand your consideration. However T.J. Hockenson has an analogous athletic profile. As well as, the Vikings introduced in Jauan Jennings, who additionally operates within the intermediate space of the sector.

We’ll completely see a weekly spotlight of Addison coming down with the ball for an extended acquire. However that may very well be his solely motion of the sport, given the crowded receiver corps in Minnesota.