Three weeks into the fantasy season, the reasons begin getting just a little tougher to make. One dangerous recreation? Advantageous. Two video games? We are able to nonetheless discuss ourselves into persistence. By Week 4, although, now we have sufficient info to start out asking whether or not what we drafted is definitely what now we have.
For working backs, I care about extra than simply touches. Seventeen carries can look nice in a field rating, however what sort of carries are they? Is the participant concerned on third down? Is he catching passes? Is he getting the soccer close to the aim line? Is the offense creating sufficient scoring alternatives?
That’s the place this week’s Panic Meter begins.
The thresholds stay the identical: No Panic, Some Panic, Whole Panic or Coping Nook. All 4 of those 12 months 2 working backs have upset indirectly. They simply haven’t upset for a similar causes.
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Omarion Hampton: SOME PANIC
The carries preserve pulling me again in with Omarion Hampton. Nearly the whole lot else is pushing his ceiling away.
By means of three video games, Hampton has 50 carries for 193 yards and two touchdowns. That’s sufficient quantity to maintain him playable. The issue lies within the sort of labor he’s getting.
Hampton caught 32 passes in solely 9 video games as a rookie. By means of three video games this season, he has two catches on three targets. Alec Ingold caught three passes for 35 yards in Week 3 alone. Hampton has fewer receptions by way of three weeks than his fullback had in a single recreation.
Week 3 made the priority worse. Hampton performed simply 27 of 64 snaps and ran six routes. Keaton Mitchell performed 23 snaps and ran 15 routes whereas Kimani Vidal dealt with a lot of the apparent passing-down work. Hampton noticed solely one among seven working again targets.
The Chargers are beginning to break up this backfield into three jobs. Hampton is the first early-down runner, Mitchell offers them velocity and Vidal is taking precious passing-down snaps. That strips away the receiving ceiling fantasy managers have been relying on.
The offense is just not serving to both. Los Angeles is 0-3 and has scored 14, 14 and 16 factors, respectively. Even a safe goal-line position solely goes to date when the staff not often will get there.
I’m at Some Panic. Hampton continues to be averaging greater than 17 touches per recreation and has dealt with 50 of the Chargers’ 68 working again carries, so the ground continues to be there. What has modified is the ceiling.
Fantasy managers drafted a three-down breakout and proper now, all they’ve is an early-down quantity again.
Ashton Jeanty: SOME PANIC
Ashton Jeanty represents virtually the other drawback.
The position is great. He has 76 touches by way of three video games, 63 carries and 16 targets, and he performed 83% of the snaps in Week 3. In the event you confirmed me that workload in August, I’d have cherished it.
However the manufacturing has not matched it.
Jeanty has 206 speeding yards on 63 carries — simply 3.3 yards per try — with no speeding touchdowns. After opening with 102 yards on 23 carries, he has 104 speeding yards on 40 carries over the past two weeks. He additionally dropped three passes in Week 2 and failed on two early goal-line carries.
What has stood out most is the dearth of the tackle-breaking and explosive speeding we noticed from him as a rookie.
Mike Washington Jr. gave us a pointy distinction in Week 3. Jeanty’s longest run on 19 carries was 12 yards. Washington turned 5 carries into 54 yards, together with a 36-yard landing.
I’m not fearful about Washington stealing the backfield. He performed solely 17% of the snaps. I’m fearful as a result of Jeanty is getting the whole lot we would like from a workload perspective and nonetheless has not persistently seemed just like the participant fantasy managers paid for.
Las Vegas is 3-0 and averaging 29.3 factors per recreation. The offense is creating scoring possibilities. Jeanty has two receiving touchdowns and nonetheless averages 18.4 PPR factors, however the 32.7-point opener is carrying a whole lot of that quantity. Since then, he has scored 10.3 and 12.3, respectively.
So I’m staying at Some Panic. The workload is just too robust to extend the panic degree, however I want the explosive performs and tackle-breaking to return earlier than I’m snug viewing Jeanty because the elite difference-maker fantasy managers drafted.
Quinshon Judkins: NO PANIC
Quinshon Judkins has not been good. He additionally has not given me a cause to alter the analysis.
By means of three video games, Judkins has 42 carries for 124 yards, 9 receptions for 53 yards and no touchdowns. He’s averaging 3.0 yards per carry. No person drafted him anticipating effectivity to hold his fantasy worth.
His worth comes from proudly owning Cleveland’s speeding work, and that half stays intact.
Judkins dealt with 18 of the Browns’ 19 working again carries in Week 3 and completed with 70 speeding yards. Raheim Sanders took some passing-down work whereas Cleveland was chasing factors late, however Sanders has solely 4 carries all season. Jaleel McLaughlin barely performed and Dylan Sampson is on injured reserve.
The setup is fairly easy. Judkins controls the early-down speeding work in an offense averaging 18 factors per recreation. The receiving ceiling is restricted and landing alternatives are going to find out a whole lot of his higher fantasy weeks.
For me, that stays at No Panic.
That doesn’t imply I like the profile. It means the utilization nonetheless matches the rationale you drafted him. He’s a volume-based RB2 or flex who may give you 15 to twenty touches and desires touchdowns to push past that. Three video games haven’t modified the participant or the position sufficient for me to react.
TreVeyon Henderson: TOTAL PANIC
TreVeyon Henderson is the one I’m most involved about. He missed Week 1 with an ankle damage, returned in Week 2 and instantly gave fantasy managers hope with 16 carries for 76 yards and a landing.
Then Week 3 pulled the rug again out.
Henderson performed 21 snaps to Rhamondre Stevenson’s 32. Henderson had a slender 9-8 edge in carries, however Stevenson led 3-1 in targets and dealt with extra of the passing-down work. Throughout Henderson’s two energetic video games, he has 25 touches to Stevenson’s 18, however Henderson has just one goal.
So sure, Henderson can lead this backfield in carries and nonetheless lose the snaps that carry extra fantasy worth.
Now put that position inside a Patriots offense averaging 12 factors per recreation. New England has scored 36 factors in three weeks, the offensive line is coping with accidents and Drake Maye has struggled to maintain the offense on schedule. Henderson is being requested to create fantasy worth with out a dependable receiving position or management of the backfield.
We all know he can create explosive performs. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry as a rookie, rushed for 911 yards and scored 4 touchdowns of at the very least 50 yards.
The issue is how a lot he wants these performs proper now.
You can’t construct a weekly fantasy expectation round ready for a 40-yard run. That’s Whole Panic for me. The expertise continues to be there, however the position is just not robust sufficient and the offense is just not producing sufficient factors to cowl for it.
Henderson can nonetheless save your week with one play, however New England is giving him little or no else.
