A multi-year take a look at St. Louis Cardinals catchers

Frequent board commenter Solanus tracks an unlimited quantity of pitcher and catcher information, tabulating every sport consequence by hand. Final yr, he gave me sufficient perception into his spreadsheets the place I used to be in a position to re-create a lot of the information he hand tabulates (I’m means too lazy for that!) and I wished to peak at a few of these information factors and see what we might study in regards to the defensive facet of their catching corps.

The info itself comes from a mixture of sources. Statcast information for precise line-ups and sport occasions (who pitched, who caught, which innings, and so on.). Baseball reference.com for total pitching traces for every sport, and with Fangraphs due to course there must be variations in how the information is constructed that doesn’t make it simple. Crew ids between websites are completely different. Participant Ids are completely different. Even sport Ids are completely different, and all three must be brewed collectively to knit the information into one constant consequence.

I wrote the code. The strategies are all Solanus. I merely copied his logic into R code and ran it. So he will get all of the credit score.

I selected to question each the 2025 and 2026 seasons (you’ll seemingly perceive why after I undergo it). Right here is the uncooked information, and following that among the fascinating morsels I found and thought of some.

What do you see?

Here’s what I picked up…

1. Check out the road marked Reliever WPA. That is “Win Likelihood Added” (or subtracted) by relievers throughout the 2 seasons, distributed by which catcher they have been throwing to. That is calculated by accumulating the WPA (added or subtracted) that got here with every pitch stated relievers threw. What I observed is that Pedro Pages, in each years, finally ends up with a considerably bigger acquire of WPA than the opposite catchers mixed. It might seem that throughout two seasons and two largely completely different reliever staffs, Pages is healthier in a position to coax out successful efficiency among the many reliever set. Attention-grabbing?
2. In what could also be a companion stat, check out the rows marked RelieverMD and RelieverSD. SD and MD stand for Shutdown and Meltdown and are Fangraph proprietary calculations of reliever efficiency, the place a aid look that nets > .06 WPA (ie. will increase win probabilities by 6% or extra) is an SD (Shutdown) and a Meltdown is the alternative, which is a aid look that decreases win probabilities by 6% or extra. Pages has, by far, the best ratio of SD:MD among the many catchers throughout each years.
3. Check out the road CatcherRApergame. RA is runs allowed. Be aware that the one catcher to exceed 5 RA in each seasons is Jimmy Crooks. It is a wee bit completely different than catcher ERA, as this stat simply counts runs, not simply earned runs.
4. Right here is an sudden twist. Throughout two seasons, just one catcher was in a position to coax constructive StarterWPA. The 2026 model of Ivan Herrera. Who had that on their pre-season predictions?
5. Having nothing to do with particular person catchers, however look and the StarterWPA and RelieverWPA totals throughout 2025 and 2026 and see how a lot they shifted. Reversed is actually what occurred. The 2025 bullpen with the 2026 rotation produces a WPA of 4.6 (as an alternative of slightly below 0). That’s ~85 wins proper there. Wow. And I knew the bullpen was unhealthy, however holy cow!
6. Once more, having nothing to do with catchers, however discover how evenly distributed the video games are in each years. Virtually 1/3 of the video games have been video games the place the Cardinals scored 6 or extra runs and one other 1/3 have been video games the place the Cardinals scored 2 or much less runs. Presumably, if my math expertise persist, the remaining third falls within the vary of three to five runs scored. Whereas a lot ado might be made about all of the shut video games the Cardinals performed, the truth for many groups, most years is that the 3-to-5 runs cohort goes to be crapshoot, 50-50 on wins and losses, except they’ve a lights out bullpen. Two main areas of enchancment for the Cardinals are going to be 1) cut back the variety of video games they rating 2 runs or much less (they solely gained 16% of those) and a pair of) cut back the variety of video games they rating 6 runs or extra AND lose (they solely gained 73% of those video games). That quantity must be nearer or above 80%.
7. Right here is one which most likely wants a technique tweak, nevertheless it seems to be on the suitable path. Solanus calcs starter WPA and assigns as SD (shutdown) or MD (meltdown) grade much like relievers. Should you take a look at the totals for every season, the variety of starter SD and MD outcomes flipped between 2025 and 2026) in a great way. What I want to determine is … is the .06 WPA threshold appropriate for starters. They pitch extra innings, however decrease leverage, so unsure the precise threshold is the place I’d need it. Extra to chew on this winter.

I’m unsure if there may be extra to decipher from this or not. Though I feel that over lengthy intervals of time Catcher ERA might be an indicator, it’s fairly unstable over small samples. Whereas I gathered two seasons of knowledge, understand that that is solely 60 begins for a man like Herrera and solely Pages exceeded 100 begins throughout each seasons mixed. Most likely too small to make definitive conclusions, however some developments (as famous above) emerge and might be arduous to disregard. Some caveats embody: Most of Ivan’s information set in primarily based on 2026, and was principally restricted to 2 starters – Pallante, McGreevy. Criminal’s and Bernal’s pattern sizes are too small to learn a lot into.

Evaluating to the Brewer’s catchers in 2026

One of many beneifts of getting code as an alternative of hand-tabulating is I can run this for any season, any staff. For enjoyable, I ran the identical queries towards MIL pitchers and catchers for the 2026 season. Some issues I famous:

For enjoyable, I ran the identical queries towards MIL pitchers and catchers for the 2026. Some issues I famous:

• Wish to know the distinction between Milwaukee and St. Louis? Have a look at the Starter and Reliever WPA numbers. In 2026, the Cardinals starters amassed .7 WPA and -2.5 for relievers. Milwaukee? 5.3 and 9.5 respectively. The reliever hole alone is 12.12!! Utilizing actually tough math, I determine most video games began out within the space of 50-50 win chance, with a little bit bit extra to the house staff and higher staff. A .5 improve in WPA takes a 50-50 sport and turns it right into a win. 12 WPA turns into 24 wins. Proper?
• Then, check out Catcher begins. Final I checked, William Contreras was a reasonably good hitter. If Milwaukee can catch their fairly good hitter 120 video games+, why are Cardinal followers in such a rush to maneuver Rainel Rodriguez off C?
• One other factor to gander at. The Cardinal relievers had a couple of extra Shutdown performances, however overran the Brewers with like 40 extra Meltdowns. Hmmm. That would go away scars.
• Final, take a look at the Brewers win PCT when the rating 6 or extra, or permit 2 or much less. They’re up round 90%. That’s the place the Cardinals needs to be, not within the mid 70’s.

Have a contented and secure Halloween, or Dia de los Muertos, whichever you like.