As expected, The World Cup will be more than decisive to know who will win the 2026 Ballon d’Or on October 26 in London. A few hours from final between Argentina and Spain, the award that rewards the best footballer of the season already generates debate. And the reality is that Lionel Messi has become the great favorite to lift what would be the ninth of his career.
In fact, most betting houses already place it in the lead… and it is not just a question of numbers. It is also contextual. History shows that World Cup years are usually marked by performance at the biggest football event. It doesn’t always happen—there’s the case of 2010, when the World Cup did not end up being so decisive in the vote—, but the usual thing is that the tournament has a determining weight. Fabio Cannavaro (2006), Luka Modric (2018) or Messi himself (2022) are some of the most recent examples. And the Argentine arrives again at the right time.
BALLOON D’OR wink to MESSI? “Can you win without playing in Europe?”
To his 39 years old, Messi has had a great start to the season with Inter Miami, where he accumulated 12 goals and 8 assists in 14 games officials before traveling to the summer event. But it has been with Argentina where it has once again made a difference. Reach the final as top scorer of the tournament with 8 goals, four assists and as the absolute leader of the Albiceleste with the possibility of winning a second consecutive one. An unprecedented milestone that would elevate him even higher in the football Olympus and in the twilight of his career.
And if he ends up lifting the Cup, as he did in Doha almost four years ago, and maintains that prominence, it is difficult to find a sufficiently solid argument to snatch the award from him beyond reality: plays in a League of a clearly lower level than those in Europe… although the official account of the Ballon d’Or already dropped a few hours ago that this is not, at all, decisive.
Lamine Yamal, the first alternative
If anyone can argue with Messi about the award, it is Lamine Yamal. The Barcelona winger is not having such a decisive World Cup from a statistical point of view. Still He has not scored in the tournament, although he has once again shown that he is one of the most unbalanced footballers of the championship and an essential piece in Spain’s game, always conditioning the way the rival defends, no matter who is in front.
His season with Barcelona, however, has been outstanding. 24 goals and 17 assists in 45 games, leading the Barça team towards the conquest of LaLiga and the Spanish Super Cup. The Champions It is still the pending task, but his role as leader of Flick’s team has been indisputable.
The video published by Lamine Yamal after beating France: “Spain in the final! Pardon, pardon…”
Furthermore, the Blaugrana He knows what it’s like to be on the verge of winning the Ballon d’Or.. In the last edition he finished second, despite not having won a major tournament like the Champions League, being Nations League runner-up with Spain and having only conquered the League and the Copa del Rey with Barcelona. That vote made it clear that the impact of the footballer from 19 years It is no coincidence, and seeing him lift the World Cup would once again place him, at the very least, among the favorites to finish on the award podium.
What is clear is that If Spain wins the World Cup and Lamine signs a decisive final, his candidacy would skyrocket again to the point of becoming Messi’s main threat.
Harry Kane also knocks on the door
It also appears in the list of favorites Harry Kane. The English forward has completed the best season of his career. has signed 61 goals in 51 games, winning the European Golden Shoe ahead of Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappéin addition to leading the Bayern Munich towards the conquest of the Bundesliga and the German Cup.
This was Kane’s double to rescue England
To this we must add a great World Cup with Englandbeing one of the offensive references of Thomas Tuchel’s team with 6 goals and one assist. However, the defeat in the semifinals against Argentina seems to have considerably reduced their options. In World Cup years, history shows that the weight of the tournament is usually decisive and staying one step away from the final is a handicap important against a Messi who has led the Albiceleste to the last game.
Fabián Ruiz and the value of titles
The Spanish midfielder has been a fundamental piece in the historic course of Paris Saint-Germain, winning all the major titles with the Parisian team, including the Champions League. If he also managed to become world champion with Spain, he would present one of the most complete honors of the year.
His problem It is the same one that many have historically had. midfielders: compete for a prize in which the leading role usually falls on the most decisive footballers in front of the goal… with the exception of Rodri Hernández in 2024, yes indeed. Even so, one (another) brilliant performance in the final could place him among the most voted names.
Goal by Fabián (1-0) in Spain 2-1 Belgium
Other names that are probably further from the head are those of the French offensive trident. Dembele and Olise They have had good seasons in PSG (winning again the Champions) and in the Bayernwhile Mbappe has had a great World Cup with France although the blank season with the real Madrid It seems like a big burden to place among the big favorites.
