Week 9 of the NFL season started with the Jacksonville Jaguars cruising to a 33-10 win on the street in opposition to the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday evening. Rain performed an element, however Ravens QB Joe Fagnano had a troublesome debut and there wasn’t a lot suspense concerning the ultimate final result.
What’s going to the remainder of the weekend have in retailer for bettors?
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Our NFL handicapping group of Matt Jacob, Jeremy Pond and Matt Russell mix to provide their finest bets for Week 9 of the NFL season.
Odds topic to alter.
Contents
Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 52.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Pond: Dying, taxes and Mike Gesicki touchdowns.
The primary two are certain issues. The third is inching nearer to turning into a assure.
Gesicki has collected a decent 17 catches for 241 yards for the surging Bengals (5-2), who’re within the midst of a three-game successful streak coming into Sunday’s showdown with the Falcons at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid.
Whereas these stats are stable, it is what Gesicki has finished within the pink zone that is turning heads. He has scored six touchdowns, together with one in 5 consecutive video games, that means 35% of his catches this season have gone for scores.
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Gesicki has been Burrow’s favourite goal all season within the pink zone and I do not see that altering right here simply because they’re enjoying Atlanta on one other continent. 4 of Gesicki’s touchdowns have come through receptions of 15 yards or much less.
Wager: TE Mike Gesicki anytime landing (+230, FanDuel)
New York Jets at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-10, 47.5)
Russell: If there is a shut sport to blow, Aaron Glenn and the Jets are prepared and keen to provide it away. Fortunately, in relation to betting on New York, successful (or coming all that shut) is not required right here. It is a significantly handy state of affairs, as they play a group recognized for successful shut video games however not overlaying massive numbers, even at their finest.
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Kansas Metropolis was “again” after a pair of house prime-time video games had a contemporary Patrick Mahomes operating round, Travis Kelce in wedding ceremony form and a crop of attention-grabbing large receivers to help a passing sport that was allowed to take a backseat to Andy Reid’s brand-new toy, Kenneth Walker. With that visibility within the comfortable confines of Arrowhead, the Chiefs’ market score raised and held its place slightly below the highest groups within the NFL.
Since then, the Chiefs outgained the Dolphins by 5 yards in a degree unfold cowl, barely fended off the Raiders and joined the membership in outlasting the meek Chargers. Now, having misplaced back-to-back video games to 2 good groups on the street, they’ve a skinny receiver room, a banged-up Kelce and Walker’s yardage on a decline. But, they’re squished in-between the Jaguars and Patriots in THE WINDOW’s estimated market scores.
Simply three weeks in the past, New England was -7 at house to the Jets, in a sport that pushed in opposition to the unfold. New York misplaced two extra video games as a house favourite, and the market has adjusted the Jets down in accordance.
In that point, the Jets have arguably the worst move protection within the NFL, however the Chiefs have not proven that is one thing they’ll exploit. In the meantime, New York’s offense has crept up the superior metrics with their pass-catching corps filling out with wholesome returns Omar Cooper Jr., Adonai Michell and Mason Taylor, and Braelon Allen making Breece Corridor seemingly expendable.
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Getting David Bailey (groin) again this week would assist the Jets protection, particularly with the Chiefs’ offensive line inclined to the move rush with Justin Simmons’ (IR) alternative, Khalil Benson, a much better run-blocker than pass-protector.
However, with L’Jarius Sneed out, and Mansoor Delane questionable, the Jets ought to be capable of transfer the ball nicely sufficient to maintain this sport shut.
Wager: Jets +10 (-110, BetMGM)
Dallas Cowboys (-6, 51.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Jacob: You are conscious of the phrase “The extra issues change, the extra they keep the identical?” Effectively, let me introduce you to the 2026 Dallas Cowboys, who as soon as once more are all offense, no protection.
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Dallas arrives in Indianapolis averaging 27.4 factors per sport (seventh most within the NFL) and permitting 26.6 PPG (sixth most within the NFL). Mirroring current seasons, the Cowboys subject an offense that is totally reliant on QB Dak Prescott and a cease unit that stops, nicely, nothing. Simply take a look at the rankings: ninth in passing offense, twenty fifth in speeding offense, twenty second in passing protection, useless final in speeding protection.
All of this explains why the over has cashed in six of Dallas’ eight video games this season (together with ultimate scores of 37-20, 34-31, 34-30, 38-21 and 33-30). And why the over is 37-16-1 in Cowboys video games going again to Week 13 of the 2023 season.
Since final season kicked off, the Cowboys and their opponents have mixed for greater than 50 factors in 17 of 25 video games, together with eight of 13 on the street.
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By now, it is fairly clear the place I am heading with this wager. However in fact it normally takes two to tango when betting a complete. Excellent news: I am fairly assured the Colts will deliver their dancing sneakers Sunday, as they’ve eclipsed the full in 5 of eight video games, together with three of the final 4.
Indy’s protection has been significantly putrid this 12 months, with the Jaguars (42 factors final week), Ravens (41), Steelers (34), Chiefs (33) and Titans (26) all lighting up the scoreboard.
Wager: Cowboys-Colts over 51.5 (-108, BetMGM)
Denver Broncos (-2.5, 43.5) at Carolina Panthers
Jacob: Broncos rookie RB Jonah Coleman has solely performed in three of his group’s first eight video games. And he wasn’t overly spectacular in any of them. He had 39 yards on 10 carries in opposition to Jacksonville in Week 2; 54 yards on 9 carries in opposition to Arizona two weeks in the past; and 41 yards on 11 totes in opposition to Kansas Metropolis final week.
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This is the factor, although: Coleman surpassed his speeding prop projection in all three contests. And the fourth-round choose from Washington did it in opposition to defenses that at the moment rank No. 1 (Jaguars), No. 8 (Chiefs) and No. 19 (Arizona) in stopping the run.
This week, Coleman faces Carolina, which is yielding 140.7 speeding yards per sport and 4.83 yards per carry, figures that respectively rank thirtieth and twenty eighth within the NFL. And that is after the Panthers held Inexperienced Bay — which has by far the NFL’s most anemic operating sport — to 66 yards on 26 carries final week.
Within the earlier sport, Tampa Bay backfield mates Bucky Irving (106 yards), Kenneth Gainwell (88 yards) and Sean Tucker (52 yards) shredded Carolina for 246 speeding yards on 45 carries. Different operating backs to gentle up the Panthers this season: Cleveland’s Quinshon Judkins (70 yards), Atlanta’s Bijan and Brian Robinson (72 and 51 yards, respectively) and Chicago’s D’Andre Swift (124 yards) and Kyle Monangai (100 yards).
Coleman has been Denver’s main ball service and rusher in all three video games he is performed. He’ll do this once more Sunday and simply eclipse 60 yards.
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Wager: Jonah Coleman over 52.5 speeding yards (-114, FanDuel)
Buffalo Payments (-3, 45.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Pond: Large information dropped Thursday when Minnesota introduced that QB Carson Wentz would begin Monday’s showdown in opposition to Buffalo.
That may sound crushing for the Vikings (6-1), who’re coming off their first lack of the season following a 19-15 street setback in opposition to Detroit. Nonetheless, Murray has been something however spectacular underneath heart this season. He has thrown for simply 1,022 yards (twenty seventh), and 5 touchdowns.
Now, Minnesota turns to Wentz, which is not such a nasty factor. With Murray sidelined to begin the season, Wentz led the Vikings to massive wins in opposition to NFC rivals Inexperienced Bay and Chicago earlier than heading again to clipboard duties.
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And one of many gamers who Wentz focused throughout his two-game run was T.J. Hockenson.
The standout tight finish hauled in a mixed seven passes on 9 targets for 65 yards, highlighted by a 16-yard TD catch within the season-opening win over the Packers.
Extra just lately, Hockenson has been unbelievable in a extra featured position within the Minnesota offense. Over the previous two outings, he has eight catches on 10 targets for 93 yards. He additionally recorded touchdowns in each contests.
Wentz will likely be in search of acquainted, reliable faces when Minnesota will get within the pink zone and Hockenson – together with Justin Jefferson – will likely be a type of faces.
Again the previous first-round select of Iowa to make three video games in a row with a landing.
Wager: TE T.J. Hockenson anytime TD (+250, BetMGM)
