The Payments are nonetheless the Payments. In some ways in which, makes them one of many NFL’s finest groups. In different methods, it scares their followers to demise.
This season was purported to be one in every of transformation for Buffalo. Sadly for Payments Mafia, Sunday was an indication that the extra issues change, the extra they keep the identical. After a 3-0 begin and getting into a sport through which they might have put an early kill shot into the New England Patriots, the Payments as an alternative allowed their division rivals to not simply win, however discover their groove.
The Patriots had simply 19 factors on the season getting into the Week 4 matchup; they scored 29 factors in opposition to the Payments’ protection – a unit new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard was anticipated to make higher. What has transpired has been a protection that ranks thirtieth in EPA per play, has allowed the second-most landing passes within the league, and the seventh-most factors within the league. Nobody was anticipating the Payments to be the perfect protection within the NFL, however to be statistically one of many worst is simply extra of the identical that followers noticed with Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich.
Offensively, Joe Brady went away from all the pieces that labored within the first three weeks. The Payments had the third-highest EPA per play in 12 personnel in Weeks 1-3, but they solely ran 9 such performs in opposition to the Patriots. James Cook dinner was averaging over six yards per carry, however solely ran the ball 12 instances. Joe Brady even reverted again to eye-roll-worthy calls with a display on Third-and-8 that was sniffed out and led to a punt. Dalton Kincaid was fourth in EPA per goal amongst tight ends with at the very least 50 routes run getting into Week 4 – he had two targets. Why the Payments diverted from all the pieces that helped them begin 3-0 was as regarding because it was acquainted.
And whereas Brady and Leonard shoulder many of the blame, Josh Allen isn’t with out fault. Regardless of all of the aforementioned shortcomings, with simply over a minute to play and all three timeouts nonetheless in his again pocket, Allen dodged a sack and launched a go into double protection to Josh Palmer, which was picked off by Craig Woodson. Allen might have taken off and received a modest acquire, hit the verify down, which was open to the left, or tried extending the play even longer to permit one thing to develop.
Sure, his protection didn’t play effectively, and sure he gave them the lead with lower than 5 minutes left within the sport on an absolute rope of a go to Keon Coleman. All of that may be acknowledged whereas additionally saying that we are actually in 12 months 9 of Allen’s profession, and you may nonetheless set your watch to a postgame press convention the place he appears distraught following an extremely immature throw that he has no enterprise making an attempt. Suppose again to 2022 when he threw a pair of purple zone interceptions agains the Vikings, the second of which got here in additional time on a closely contested throw when an beneath verify down was vast open. Or Week 1 of the 2023 season agains the New York Jets that featured three picks in a loss to a Jets workforce that was led by Zach Wilson after Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles damage.
“Similar s—it, identical place, completely different day,” r.
Now Sunday, when he had all of the instruments and time to get Buffalo at minimal into subject objective vary, and at most in the long run zone to get to a 4-0 begin. After the sport, he as soon as once more took duty for a horrid choice that in the end value his workforce. And look, man. It’s nice that he’s keen to take duty for his errors. However sooner or later, he must be smarter in these moments. Each workforce loses, nobody is saying the Payments must go 17-0. However these are the varieties of losses that find yourself costing you. Final 12 months, the Payments misplaced to the Falcons and Dolphins, two groups that fired their head coach and began anew in 2026. Had they gained each of these video games, they end the 12 months 14-3 and because the potential No. 1 seed within the AFC. So ought to they end with a 12-5 report and a sport out of the No. 1 seed this season, or ought to the Patriots battle again to win the AFC East, this sport will definitely hang-out them.
None of that is to say that rapidly Josh Allen is accountable for all of the Payments’ points – he’s not. Neither is it to remove from the as soon as in a lifetime expertise that he’s or to downplay his greatness. It’s merely saying the Payments must develop up. Joe Brady wants to indicate he isn’t Sean McDermott and make actual modifications to the defensive personnel. Jim Leonhard has to tighten up a unit that, outdoors of its entrance 4, has been extremely disappointing and simple to dissect. And Allen must be smarter and extra mature together with his decision-making within the sport’s largest moments. As a result of with a view to lastly recover from that proverbial hump, he and his teammates have to indicate that the Payments aren’t nonetheless the Payments.
That was the chilly open. That is the Scorching Learn.
Three and out
The Broncos don’t belief Bo Nix
Actions converse louder than phrases, and the Denver Broncos are telling you they don’t imagine of their quarterback. Bo Nix completed the Broncos’ Week 4 loss to the San Francisco 49ers going 25-of-42 for 214 yards and a landing. Of these 25 completions, solely six travelled additional than 5 yards downfield. Moreover, Nix has a median depth of goal of simply 6.01 yards, and his common air yards to sticks is -3.48 yards, which means his common throw is about 3.5 yards in need of the place the primary down marker is – each of these numbers are the bottom within the NFL amongst 33 quarterbacks who’ve at the very least 50 dropbacks. His quick passing proportion additionally sits at 77 p.c, which leads the NFL.
These are usually not the tendencies of a workforce that believes they’ve the proper man beneath heart who could make splash performs downfield. I referenced his six passes downfield, however seeing his Week 4 passing chart actually places into perspective how the Broncos play offense – scared.
Swing passes, display passes, beneath fast passes – that’s what you do when you may have little religion in your quarterback. And it’s exhausting accountable Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Davis Webb, as a result of Nix hasn’t been good. He has a decrease EPA per play than Jacoby Brissett, per s, and a decrease success price than Cam Ward. And I hate to say I advised you so, solely no, I truly like to say that – however I’ve mentioned this about Nix since he entered the league. That is the kind of play he placed on tape at Auburn and Oregon. And whereas the beneath passes and screens helped open up the deep passing sport a 12 months in the past, it hasn’t this season, as Nix is twenty first within the league in EPA per play on deep passes. Groups are additionally realizing that if you happen to strain Nix, he crumbles, as he’s twenty sixth in go success price when going through strain.
That is what Nix is – a center of the pack quarterback at his best possible, and a bottom-dweller starter at worst. The Broncos’ protection hasn’t been its elite self by means of 4 video games both, they usually have to be borderline excellent to win video games when the offense is that this unhealthy. This iteration of the Broncos peaked final season and rode a magic carpet to the AFC Championship – they gained’t come near these heights once more.
The Atlanta Falcons may be a wagon
The place the hell did this come from? During the last two weeks, the Falcons have erupted offensively, they usually’ve performed so largely on the bottom. In Weeks 3 and 4, the Falcons lead the NFL in EPA per play, and their 0.28 EPA per rush is astoundingly greater than the second-place Colts, who put up a 0.1 mark. Their success price of 58.2 p.c can be practically a full 5 p.c greater than the Detroit Lions (53.8) and their 447 speeding yards. On prime of that, they’re additionally first in speeding yards, speeding touchdowns, and yards after contact.
This corresponds with the return of Michael Penix, who has performed very effectively in his personal proper. He’s averaging 10.6 yards per try with 4 touchdowns in two video games. Seems that your offense will be fairly good when Cooper Rush and Jack Strand aren’t your quarterbacks. Who would have guessed? And after a dreadful 0-2 begin, the Falcons are rapidly the most well liked offense within the NFL, and their Week 5 Sunday night time matchup with the Baltimore Ravens is rapidly very intriguing.
The Houston Texans’ identification has develop into its impotence
Coming into the 12 months, many proclaimed the Houston Texans’ protection to be the perfect in soccer, and there was actually a simple argument to make. The have been second in defensive EPA per play final season and second in success price, as effectively. This season? A really completely different story.
By 4 video games, the Texans are twenty fourth in defensive EPA per play, and they’re permitting the third-most passing yards within the league. It’s not simply the counting stats that present the plain fall off from this unit over the past 12 months, it’s their incapability to shut video games. C.J. Stroud and the offense gave the Texans the lead with simply over two minutes remaining, They held up their finish of the discount after which some. Stroud threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns, each of which have been thrown to a returning Nico Collins. The protection answered that by permitting the Cowboys to drive 73 yards in 11 performs which ended with CeeDee Lamb catching his seventeenth go of the day in the long run zone.
Houston has allowed 30+ factors twice within the first 4 video games – they allowed 30 factors simply as soon as in 2025. What was as soon as the spine of the workforce has develop into the very factor that paralyzes them, and an 0-4 begin has been the outcome.
One play that modified all the pieces
The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs trailed the Las Vegas Raiders 19-17 with beneath 4 minutes remaining within the fourth quarter. Kenneth Walker rushed for a two-yard rating to make it 24-19, but it surely’s the subsequent play that utterly swung the outcome. Raiders kick returner Dareke Younger fumbled on the following kickoff, which was recovered by Jack Cochrane of the Chiefs. On the primary play of the following drive, Walker scored as soon as once more to place the Chiefs up 30-19, and that might find yourself being what sealed the 30-23 win to get the Chiefs to 4-0.
Purchase or promote
Purchase: Chicago Bears protection
The good Aaron Schatz and his 2026 Soccer Almanac projected the Bears to have the worst protection within the league this season. By 4 video games, although, the Bears are holding their very own. They’re at the moment tied for fourth in defensive EPA per play, in addition to being within the higher half in defensive success price. They’ve additionally solely allowed 4 passing touchdowns (second-fewest within the league), 282.3 yards per sport (third-fewest within the league) and 65 factors (fourth-fewest within the league). To proceed, since Week 2, the Bears have allowed simply 28 factors – the fewest within the NFL in that span. Credit score Dennis Allen for the job he’s performed with a protection that misplaced 5 of its key gamers from a 12 months in the past. Not solely is he making it work, however he’s making it thrive.
Promote: The Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota could also be 4-0, however they’re the John Daley standing throughout from Tiger Woods of 4-0 groups. The 49ers and Chiefs have been dominant offensively of their respective begins to the season, rating second and fifth, respectively, in factors scored and first and fourth in EPA per play whereas each of their protection rank within the prime 12 in whole yards allowed per sport. The Vikings, whereas having the league’s prime protection from an EPA and success price perspective, have one of many league’s worst offenses. They’re at the moment thirty first in success price, forward of solely the Dolphins. And a few might level to Carson Wentz having to step in for a sport and a half, however Kyler Murray hasn’t been good. Actually, from an effectivity standpoint, Wentz performed higher when beginning. Of 41 quarterbacks to play at the very least 25 snaps this season, Murray is thirty eighth in EPA per play and thirty ninth in success price whereas throwing only one landing to 2 interceptions. Their schedule is one the place they will get to 10 wins from right here based mostly off what they’ve performed to this point, but when and once they get into the postseason, this isn’t a workforce that could be a menace.
Purchase: Rams resilience
We have been lower than 1 / 4 away from speaking concerning the Rams being 1-3 after being hyped as the simple Tremendous Bowl favorites getting into the season. However down 20-10 late within the third quarter, head coach Sean McVay gathered the offense in a sideline huddle and rallied his troops to begin taking part in just like the Rams we anticipated to see. Two Kyren Williams fourth-quarter touchdowns led Los Angeles again to finish a 10-point comeback on the street in Philadelphia, sending each groups to 2-2. It’s been an inconsistent begin for the Rams, as Matthew Stafford is at the moment second within the NFL with six interceptions thrown. However it is a workforce that acknowledges the season is a marathon, not a dash. They’ll get Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald again. And as soon as these two are subsequent to one another, we’ll actually see if this Rams workforce can dwell as much as its ungodly potential.
Promote: The New York Jets
I actually believed the Jets would march into Solider Subject and get a win over the Bears, and it’s not like that was a loopy thought. They’d practically defeated the Lions in Week 3, and may have crushed the Packers in Week 2. As a substitute what ensued was some of the lopsided video games in NFL historical past when it comes to performs run and time of possession. The Bears ran 89 performs to simply 32 for the Jets whereas holding the ball for 42:45. New York’s protection did get its first interception since 2024, however permitting the Bears to be on the sector that lengthy and utterly management each facet of the sport is troubling. I worry this could possibly be the sport that sees the Jets revert again to the workforce we’ve come to know.
That mentioned, they play the Browns in Week 5, so reduce to subsequent Tuesday the place I look silly after they offer Cleveland its second loss.
Prediction to trace
- Week 1: Steelers will commerce Joey Porter Jr: Appropriate
- Week 2: Rams will beat Broncos handedly: Incorrect
- Week 3: Lions will blowout Panthers: Incorrect
Alright, we’re going to take a break from predicting lopsided wins. Joey Porter Jr. did get dealt final week, although, so we’re on the board with our predictions. I’ll return to the commerce effectively and say that each Brian Thomas Jr. and Marvin Harrison Jr. are on new groups earlier than the season ends. Each reached the top zone for the primary time this season, however mixed for simply three catches in Week 4. On the 12 months, the pair have mixed for 14 catches and two touchdowns. Thomas has gone from 1,200 yards as a rookie to No. 4 choice. Harrison has additionally discovered himself because the fourth choice within the passing sport behind Michael Wilson and Kendrick Bourne.
Each could be substantial targets in Baltimore, San Francisco, Las Vegas, and several other different locations. If neither of their present groups are going to make use of them, ship them to squads who will.
