On the shut of fantasy draft season this summer time, the Chicago Bears had 5 gamers within the high 70 total. Up to now, solely D’Andre Swift drafters are remotely proud of that. Even with some bumps these days, he is nonetheless the RB12 in factors per recreation after being drafted because the RB19 in Spherical 4.
Neither Luther Burden nor Rome Odunze at broad receiver has constantly made a distinction, and tight finish Colston Loveland at thirty eighth total is arguably the worst decide on the board by 5 weeks.
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Basically, I do not need to make any sweeping conclusions or grand pronouncements about this group of pass-catchers till we get a extra prolonged view of how every thing types out when Chicago has its beginning quarterback.
Caleb Williams has performed one full recreation this season; the Bears scored 59 factors in that contest whereas Williams appeared like an advanced model of his 2025 self. He did not put the ball in hurt’s manner, stored the offense on schedule, and took shot performs when obtainable however opted for checkdowns and layups after they weren’t. The Bears had been the very best offense within the NFL in Week 1 and even when the run recreation was superior and Williams was glorious as a scrambler, they boasted the fourth-best success price on passing performs. Williams operated as the kind of quarterback most of his detractors insist he merely won’t ever be within the NFL in that win.
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Issues fell aside in Week 2 when the workforce performed in opposition to Brian Flores and the NFL’s No. 1-ranked protection — by an extended shot primarily based on EPA per play and success price allowed — in a rainstorm. Williams did not end the sport after struggling a hamstring damage after enjoying 87% of the snaps.
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In a story as outdated as time, the backup quarterbacks performed properly in every of their respective first begins in a well-designed Ben Johnson offense however have not sustained that momentum as a result of they can not push the ball downfield. That is finest expressed within the Bears rating twentieth in explosive play price by 5 weeks, after ending seventh in 2025. They’re nonetheless eighth in explosive dashing price, so the go recreation is the larger anchor right here.
In Weeks 3 to five, they ranked twenty eighth in explosive play price total however first in time of possession per drive. For those who’ve watched Ben Johnson offenses, you understand he prioritizes explosive performs, not simply holding onto and shifting the ball. This has been their largest subject.
The return of their uber-talented younger quarterback who can assault each blade of grass ought to clear up most of this. However how a lot will it transfer the needle for every particular person participant? That is what we’ll look into on this house.
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We should always acknowledge that the Bears will not be some of the concentrated passing bushes within the NFL. They’re one in every of 10 groups with 5 or extra gamers who personal a ten% goal share. Their high two gamers (Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze) mix for a 39.5% goal share; that is the Twelfth-lowest for a high duo amongst all NFL groups.
Nobody projected Kalif Raymond to complete the primary 5 weeks with a 16.7% goal share and 14.5% air yard share, each of which rank third on the workforce. He is actually sophisticated the distribution and has siphoned layup targets away from the supposed top-three gamers. Now, his designed performs had been fairly efficient in Weeks 1 to three however have gone nowhere the final two video games (12 yards on six targets). His route participation has additionally dipped beneath 60%; his position could also be shrinking, which would not be a large shock for a 32-year-old veteran position participant. If he sticks round, it will make the margin for error even tighter for the three younger mainstays.
Luther Burden III
Burden has been the most important sufferer of the offense’s lack of explosive performs. His common depth of completion is beneath seven yards.
Up to now, the Bears have not been in a position to activate him exterior of designer targets near the road of scrimmage. Certainly, there have been performs on dig in-breaking routes the place he is gotten open the previous few weeks, and the ball simply does not discover him. There have been a number of examples in Week 5 with Tyson Bagent below heart.
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These had been the mainstays in Burden’s route weight loss program as a rookie and the place he is meant to be most helpful to the Bears offense as an explosive participant.
I am assured Williams, who hit Burden on just a few of those precise routes in Week 1 in opposition to Carolina, will have the ability to get the ball right here higher than Bagent or Case Keenum.
The difficulty for Burden so far, and it is nonetheless early in Yr 2, is that neither his position nor play type has expanded from his rookie season. Burden has not run a route on 80% or extra of the dropbacks in any recreation this season. He is run a route on solely 39% of dropbacks when there are two or fewer receivers on the sector. You will be essentially the most environment friendly participant within the league however it’s fairly exhausting to be a productive participant week-in-week-out when that is your position.
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That should change for Burden to hit the ceiling his ADP recommended this summer time. He wants to come back near fully eradicating Raymond from the rotation to get there. The issue is that I do not suppose he is successful on sufficient real-deal receiver routes to push the veteran or command extra downfield seems to be total. The performs the place he will get open are there; they simply must occur extra constantly. I might have mentioned the identical factor about his rookie season and school tape.
I nonetheless stay a fan of Burden’s recreation total and am not writing him off in any respect. Getting Williams again below heart will assist his weekly ceiling outcomes. He simply must take just a few extra steps ahead to raise his flooring. If and when he does, his play type and deployment make it simple for quarterbacks to search out him and get him the ball to run after the catch.
Rome Odunze
Odunze has not constantly popped off both however for nearly the precise reverse causes as Burden.
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Odunze has no enjoying time points. He is run a route on 82% of the dropbacks with two or fewer receivers on the sector from Weeks 2 to five after he was a part-time participant within the season opener. He has had no points getting open in any respect ranges of the sector. Odunze has develop into the most effective route runners and separators within the NFL. It is fairly simple to see on tape.
The issue, from a pure manufacturing standpoint, is that he performs the highest-difficulty position within the broad receiver room. His common depth of route is 10.7 yards downfield, per Fantasy Factors Knowledge, whereas everybody else on the workforce is beneath 8.0. He does not get the identical layup crossers or fast slants that go the way in which of Burden or Raymond. Whereas he’s not a sacrificial X-receiver, he does take essentially the most snaps exterior and on-ball on the workforce. He does not run an above-average price of go routes (15%) however his main route weight loss program comes from massive posts, digs and corners.
Odunze is great on these patterns and they’re vital to the workforce hitting the explosive performs that Johnson so wishes to make the bottom of his offense. But, that position has a ton of variance, no matter how good a participant could be in isolation. We have seen that in simply the final two video games. When the quarterback is protected and enjoying on time, as Bagent was in Week 4, the X-receiver will be the first goal and be the rationale his workforce thrives within the passing recreation. When issues go a bit extra awry, as they definitely did in Week 5, that participant can come away with 3-40 even after they lead the workforce in targets.
If we’re calling balls and strikes right here, Odunze has additionally made a few of his personal issues the final two seasons with massive errors at vital instances. A few of that’s overstated this 12 months, as he has just one drop — a very disgusting one in the long run zone in Week 3 in an island recreation — and sports activities the very best contested-catch price on the workforce of 75%, per Fantasy Factors Knowledge. Nonetheless, in a crowded offense in a low-percentage position, it’s good to profit from each alternative.
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Odunze’s position because the vertical X-receiver undoubtedly wants a quarterback like Williams to thrive. He’s essentially the most inclined to chaos. Even nonetheless, Odunze does not play in essentially the most “fantasy-friendly” position and that may result in volatility; much more so if Williams suffers bouts of inaccuracy that haunted him in 2024 and 2025 when throwing downfield. I stay bullish on their connection however I might see this being an analogous state of affairs to a different elite separator, Brandon Aiyuk, when he was the downfield X-receiver for the 2022 and 2023 49ers with tons of different layup choices on the workforce. Aiyuk did not crack 110 targets in 2023 however cleared 1,300 yards as a result of he was outrageously environment friendly in a superb ecosystem.
Odunze wants to scrub up some areas of his recreation to succeed in that remaining, long-shot stage and it undoubtedly will not occur both manner with out the model of Williams we noticed in Week 1.
Colston Loveland
Loveland is perhaps the trickiest one to determine — a disgrace contemplating he was the earliest drafted participant of the bunch. Proper now, he is fourth on the workforce in each targets and air yards. Nobody signed up for that. Raymond’s presence has been a giant hindrance to his outlook, as they run routes in comparable areas of the sector. Loveland has only one recreation with a goal share north of 14%. It got here in Week 4 when Raymond had a season-low 6% goal share … that is not a coincidence.
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In Week 1, Loveland ran a route on 89.5% of the dropbacks, even when he did not catch a go. Since then, his route participation has been beneath 77% in each recreation. In his dominant stretch because the clear main participant within the Bears passing recreation from Week 16 by the playoffs, Loveland ran a route in 81% of dropbacks and was focused on 30.5% of these go patterns. We simply aren’t seeing something near that utilization proper now.
Certainly one of Loveland’s superpowers in that stretch was his capability to play out-wide as a mismatch possibility. He averaged 3.08 yards per route run lined up exterior in that five-game stretch, totaling 154 yards and 12 catches on 20 targets. Up to now, this season, he is caught simply three passes for 25 yards on six targets in 5 video games when lined up out-wide. He caught all of his passes in Week 4.
To my eye take a look at, he hasn’t appeared as explosive or fluid as a separator on these reps specifically by the primary 5 weeks as he did within the again half of his rookie season. That may be a small pattern and will simply be a blip. It is only one rationalization for why he hasn’t popped on this position. His air yards per goal on his seems to be exterior is 7.5, properly south of his five-game stretch from Week 16 by the playoffs final 12 months (10.2). He simply hasn’t been getting the identical chunky downfield seems to be in these advantageous spots as we noticed in 2025. It is simple to inform your self a convincing story that this modifications with Williams again within the combine.
My different concept, along with easy variance and a small-sample droop, as to why Loveland’s manufacturing is down is that it isn’t an unusual subject for tight finish manufacturing; he is blocking extra usually. For the Bears offense, this is not a nasty factor in any respect. Loveland is among the finest blocking tight ends amongst full-time starters who’re additionally, in concept, extremely harmful pass-catchers.
Within the run recreation, Loveland is a weapon. That he is not a defensive inform and can be a mismatch weapon as a receiver is what made him particular final 12 months.
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Nonetheless, to date in 2026, he is stayed in to go block on 13.2% of his snaps, manner up from 5.8% total in 2025 and within the Week 16 to Divisional Spherical run price of three.9%. Once more, that is useful to the Bears’ offense. Williams is not the one starter the workforce is at present lacking. Chicago has performed the beginning of the season with out left sort out Ozzy Trapilo, who was improbable as a rookie however tore his patellar tendon within the 2025 postseason. The workforce rotated Braxton Jones and Theo Benedet at left sort out round their 4 different stalwart starters earlier than Jones went on IR. Benedet is an athletic mover within the run recreation however leaky in go safety. It is smart for Loveland to have to assist out till Trapilo returns.
Even in performs with three or extra receivers on the sector, Loveland has pass-blocked on 14% of his performs and has solely run a route on 70% of the workforce’s whole dropbacks. These could appear to be small shifts however from a pure manufacturing and far much less fantasy standpoint, these make all of the distinction on the margins for tight ends. It is much more true when a passing tree is extra crowded than anticipated, as is clearly the case in Chicago.
If Trapilo, who’s on the lively roster, clothes for recreation day right here quickly, we nonetheless must see if he can get again to kind briefly order. If he does, it might free Loveland as much as run extra routes and be deployed as a pass-catcher. There’s additionally an opportunity that that is how Loveland will assist his workforce this 12 months as Trapilo returns from a critical damage, which can take time to get again to 100%. That might be a giant enhance for a Bears offense that is destined to rise within the ranks the second Williams returns. It simply will not transfer the needle for Loveland’s depressed fantasy outlook.
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Finally, I am nonetheless shopping for on Colston Loveland as a long-term expertise, simply as I’m on each of his younger broad receiver teammates, Luther Burden and Rome Odunze. Apart from just a few particular person critiques, backup-quarterback affect and shifting exterior components have largely formed the box-score outcomes for all three gamers. We all know the quarterback is returning quickly, and sure this week, which is able to undoubtedly assist. The query is simply how a lot it strikes the needle for all three of those gifted gamers, and all of them have a minimum of one different quandary that wants fixing, past Williams getting again below heart.
