My 2026 fantasy soccer busts are merely primarily based on who I have been drafting the least in my paid leagues. I will simply clear 200 drafts this season, and the gamers I’ve taken in 0-4% of them are the gamers that you will see in immediately’s column. If I am improper, then I am actually paying for it.
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Spherical 1: James Cook dinner, BUF (4% publicity) & Justin Jefferson, MIN (7%)
Cook dinner was the RB6 per recreation final yr, although he led the NFL in speeding yards and carries per recreation. His 16.0 half-PPR factors per recreation had been 2.0 to five.0 factors behind the top-five backs (CMC, Taylor, Bijan, Gibbs and Achane) largely as a result of he hasn’t been a pass-catching again so far. That might change, but it surely makes much less sense for that to occur this yr with Dalton Kincaid more healthy and DJ Moore added. If he’s near the 1.9 receptions per recreation (RB39), then he does not have the ceiling to compete with the possibly elite Gibbs, Nacua, Chase, Bijan, CMC, JT, and so forth. groups.
Jefferson was the WR31 final yr. It will likely be nowhere close to that dangerous with Kyler Murray, however the truth that this simply occurred makes him a no brainer for this train. I’ve him sixteenth general in half-PPR behind the clear-cut fantasy RB1s. He is a late Spherical 1 possibility in full-PPR.
Spherical 2: Ashton Jeanty, LV (2% publicity) & Josh Allen, BUF
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The imprecise ankle harm is one factor. Jeanty might miss 0-4 video games off the bat, and he is at better re-injury danger upon his return. However Jeanty was on my fade record earlier than the prayer circle. The Raiders will likely be higher than final yr, but nonetheless regarding up entrance, at QB and at WR. They’re projected for 19.2 factors per recreation (twenty eighth) and the entire RBs close to him are in top-16 offenses except for De’Von Achane. Jeanty is probably going good, however I am unable to say his rookie tape (or superior metrics) confirmed an elite again, the place I at the very least can simply make that case with Achane by way of tape or numbers. Jeanty’s workload will likely be very massive this yr, and it might nonetheless come down from his rookie yr (RB11 utilization) with fourth-rounder Mike Washington Jr. offering way more depth than who was behind Jeanty final season when he was the RB16 in half-PPR factors per recreation.
Here is a chart taking a look at the place Ashton Jeanty stacks up in EPA per carry vs. yards per carry.
(PPRRankings.com)
Allen’s fade is solely a pricing subject on Yahoo. When he is out there on the Spherical 3/4 flip, I have been taking him about 9% of the time, which is consistent with everybody else. However on Yahoo, his ADP is in Spherical 2. That is simply too wealthy primarily based on the fantasy factors over alternative analysis I’ve carried out utilizing half-PPR scoring, the place he is completed between 18th and thirtieth general in four-straight seasons. In full-PPR, his rating could be decrease. Allen has performed at an MVP degree with elite red-zone speeding manufacturing throughout these seasons, and he nets out as an early Spherical 3 decide. It is laborious for him to offer as a lot of a bonus over a all of a sudden deep fantasy QB pool. I wrote about this idea right here.
Spherical 3: Trey McBride, ARI (2%) & Rashee Rice, KC (1%)
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Current historical past means that we now have to be very cautious with drafting elite TEs (see chart under). Trey McBride was the exception final yr (I had him thirteenth general, to be truthful), however there are too many new variables to really feel assured a few repeat. McBride led the common season in routes by 63, not simply at TE, however all gamers. The rubbish time factors had been uncontrolled, and the Cardinals had been quietly No. 1 in impartial move fee. That is simply not going to occur with coach Mike LaFleur on the sticks and with third-overall decide Jeremiyah Love within the backfield. They are going to be extra balanced. They may be very dangerous! Arizona is thirty first in projected factors per recreation (18.5), solely forward of the Jets, who’ve only one pass-catcher (Garrett Wilson) drafted within the top-160 picks in fantasy. The Cardinals have three within the prime 90. The goal competitors versus projected touchdowns math is difficult to sq., even with McBride being considered one of my absolute favourite gamers to look at proper now.
Here is a take a look at when it is optimum to draft tight ends.
(Hayden Winks)
Rice continues to be working his method again from a second surgical procedure to his knee. It is easy to neglect that occurred as a result of we had been distracted from him being in jail for 30 days, however two surgical procedures on the identical knee isn’t nice, particularly as he is been unable to run with no glitch in camp. ESPN Chiefs reporter Nate Taylor believes it is asking an excessive amount of for Rice to clear 900 yards this season primarily based on what he is seen in camp. Rice must be featured in a really distinct function to be as productive as he is been as a result of the remainder of his recreation is kind of restricted. He is the worst real-life receiver amongst anybody drafted within the top-60 general picks for my part. The Chiefs appear poised to be extra below heart and run heavy with Patrick Mahomes coming back from an ACL tear and with Kenneth Walker III offering an actual speeding risk for the primary time since Rice has been round.
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Spherical 4: Joe Burrow, CIN
This spherical is nice. I haven’t got any actual points throughout the board, although Burrow because the QB4 at forty eighth general on Yahoo is just too wealthy. He is been the QB5 per recreation since 2022, however the complete top-20 is inside simply 3.5 factors per recreation from that. My favourite technique in redraft is ready till the Spherical 8-14 vary and grabbing two QBs who’re stacked up with the WR/TEs I’ve drafted. Burrow is considerably justifiable on Ja’Marr Chase groups in Spherical 5 in half-PPR, however that is the one time he needs to be going wherever close to this. I’ve taken Burrow in 10% of my drafts, however my private ADP is sixty fifth general, not in Spherical 4.
Spherical 5: David Montgomery, HOU (4%) & Bucky Irving, TB (2%)
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Montgomery should overcome his profession wear-and-tear together with an OL that is been horrific for everything of the C.J. Stroud period. The Texans are thirty first in EPA per carry and twenty second in rush yards per recreation since 2023 when DeMeco Ryans and Stroud had been dropped at Houston. If Montgomery is Joe Mixon, then I am improper. However Montgomery just isn’t paid like Mixon was, nor has had the profession Mixon had earlier than his RB9 end in 2024. The lead again completed exterior the top-34 in 2023 and 2025. Woody Marks is a second-year participant with a greater passing-down profile and improved play between the tackles primarily based on his camp experiences and preseason tape. Montgomery’s missed tackles per contact fee final yr was 18% when it was 27%, 21%, and 24% within the earlier three seasons, and if he isn’t clearly higher than Marks, then there is not any purpose to make this a bellcow backfield. Even when he’s a workhorse for yet another yr, the Texans OL is beginning an out-of-position rookie heart and three doubtlessly washed veterans.
Irving was sixty fifth in rush yards over anticipated (-29%) and sixty fourth in EPA per carry (-0.21) out of 66 qualifying RBs final season. He wasn’t breaking as many tackles and regarded worn down. After coming back from shoulder and foot accidents in Week 13, Irving misplaced goal-line carries to the much-bigger Sean Tucker, 6 to 0. Will that stick? Uncertain, however the proof that it is attainable is regarding as a result of he is clearly being squeezed by Kenneth Gainwell (two years, $14 million) on passing downs. Even when he escapes each backs in his backfield, Irving might want to keep wholesome as a 195-pound rusher with a shoulder historical past and have the Bucs rebound usually. That 2024 breakout season for Irving occurred on an offense that was fourth in scoring (29.0 factors per recreation). Tampa Bay is 18th in projected factors (23.3) by the betting markets.
Spherical 6: TreVeyon Henderson, NE (2%)
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When Rhamondre Stevenson and Henderson had been wholesome, contained in the five-yard line carries went to the large fella, 12 to 4. Once they had been each wholesome for the 4 video games within the NFL Playoffs, Stevenson out-scored him 11.6 half-PPR factors per recreation to three.4. Sure, that is 3.4 fantasy factors per recreation for Henderson when the Tremendous Bowl run was on the road. Henderson’s move safety failures value him beneficial snaps, and his speeding model proved too boom-bust to offer him actual quantity. In the meantime, Stevenson was simply completely nice. Actually, NextGenStats’ monitoring information had Stevenson with one of the best rush yards over anticipated within the NFL. Nothing I’ve learn in camp has prompt that the efficiency hole has closed. If Stevenson fumbles too usually or will get injured, then Henderson goes to completely cook dinner. I simply can say the identical factor about Blake Corum, Kyle Monangai, Tank Bigsby, Mike Washington Jr. and others who go many rounds later.
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Spherical 7: Carnell Tate, TEN (1%) & Jonathon Brooks, CAR
I in contrast Tate to DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Jeremy Maclin earlier than the draft, as my ninth general participant. He is fairly polished for a 21-year-old early declare however his ability set is not essentially fantasy pleasant. He largely performs exterior and runs routes on the vertical stem. His velocity and sort out breaking is ok, not elite, so there’s much less incentive to ensure he has 2-3 straightforward receptions per recreation like others who’ve gone as excessive within the draft. That function for the Titans goes to go to fit Wan’Dale Robinson whether or not we prefer it or not. Past that, there are actual considerations with the Titans. It is the primary yr in a brand new scheme, one which we do not even love. The OL is perhaps the worst within the NFL, and Cam Ward stunk behind it final yr. Tennessee was thirtieth in scoring and thirtieth in passing yards final yr. The preseason video games have not eased my considerations with Ward’s improvement. Tate has gone catchless on 25 routes in them.
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Brooks has an ADP of 84.7 over the previous seven days on Yahoo and it is increased than that on different platforms. His return to play is an superior story, however a number of ACL tears and nearly zero NFL expertise is loads to beat when the value tag is assuming he is in beginning fantasy lineups. I am not satisfied he is the Panthers starter, and the Panthers aren’t going to be good. They’re projected for simply 20.8 factors per recreation (twenty sixth). Chuba Hubbard is returning to follow shortly and stays on monitor to play in Week 1. Within the final playoff recreation, Hubbard scored two touchdowns on 17 touches, dusting Rico Dowdle after he returned to pre-injury type. When wholesome in 2024, Hubbard was half-PPR’s per-game RB12 on RB7 utilization, whereas being the RB4 in rush yards over anticipated (+24%). Carolina signed him to a four-year, $33 million extension throughout that stint. The bar to clear Hubbard is increased than we understand. This issues lower than something on this paragraph, however Brooks’ preseason tape has been very mediocre. I do not see nice athleticism but, and he is had a number of whiffs in safety.
Spherical 8: Rico Dowdle, PIT (1%) & George Kittle, SF (2%)
I am on workforce Jaylen Warren, as I wrote right here.
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Kittle is a soon-to-be 33-year-old who had Achilles surgical procedure on Jan. 14. Week 2 will likely be precisely 9 months from that time, and that is absolutely the earliest we see ability gamers come again from it. More often than not, there’s a actual ramp up interval by way of snaps, whereas effectivity additionally regresses. That is the half that’s regarding for Kittle. Over the previous two seasons, Kittle averaged 6.1 targets per recreation (TE8) and 10.7 yards per goal (TE1). If the Achilles tear means he is nearer to five.0 targets per recreation (TE22) and eight.5 YPT (TE5), then he is solely averaging 42.5 yards per recreation. That feels way more reasonable than what a Spherical 7 price ticket suggests.
Spherical 9: Chris Godwin Jr., TB (1%) & Patrick Mahomes, KC (2%)
Godwin simply wasn’t wherever close to his ordinary self in 2025, coming off one other devastating harm. It is attainable he is simply more healthy and he rebounds, however that is a harmful recreation to play for a 31-year-old together with his harm historical past. Godwin can be enjoying with a coordinator with out the historical past he is had with the Bucs, and it is laborious to overview the 2025 tape and never consider that Emeka Egbuka is simply one other full tier above. I may also make a case for Jalen McMillan. Take Godwin’s career-low 1.28 yards per route or Matt Harmon’s Reception Notion information as proof; Godwin’s sixth percentile ranking in opposition to zone and sixteenth percentile ranking in opposition to man protection are nowhere close to what Egbuka had (56th and 67th percentile) in a much more tough exterior function throughout the offense.
Here is a take a look at the Bucs’ WR’s success fee by route run in 2025.
(Reception Notion)
Mahomes was the QB10 (on QB15 EPA per dropback) from 2023 to 2024 with this flawed pass-catching group. That was completely not his fault, but it surely occurred whereas largely wholesome. Final yr’s return to fantasy stardom was pushed by a career-high 30.1 speeding yards per recreation, and that is one thing to completely fade whereas getting back from a torn ACL, even when his coaching camp has gone easily. Mahomes will likely be protected by the decision sheet and the Kenneth Walker III signing, to the purpose that the Chiefs whole dropbacks might notably decline. There are too many twin risk QBs or MVP candidate statues who go after Mahomes to make him a precedence, particularly if fading Rashee Rice.
