Fantasy soccer is inundated with stats and charts (responsible!), however the extra context the movie gives, the extra dependable the info will get. That is why we’ve got a 2.5-hour present referred to as Stats vs. Movie each Tuesday at 6 p.m. EST. That present is dwell — be part of us within the chat!
This (experimental) weekly column will take a look at a few of the largest storylines I picked up by grinding the movie.
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1. The Cowboys have been out-coached
There are two unchangeable flaws with the Cowboys offense, courting again to 2025.
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Targets to RBs/FBs/TEs are averaging 6.8 yards per reception (thirty second) and +0.07 EPA per goal (twenty seventh). Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams supply subsequent to nothing after the catch on high of some ill-timed drops. They do not have receiving depth at these positions, so any throw that is not to a WR is basically DOA.
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RB carries are reaching 10+ yards 9.8% of the time (twenty eighth). Williams is a trusted short-yardage choice with a top-five success price on runs, however it’s a rarity to get any explosives on the bottom. That additionally consists of Dak Prescott as a scrambler.
With these two points, Prescott and the WR trio needs to be almost good to maintain a top-five offense. They’ve performed that extra occasions than not because the George Pickens commerce, however they’re coming off their second- and fifth-worst EPA per play outings since 2025. That is stunning with star LG Tyler Smith returning for these video games, so what’s up?
The Cowboys have been out-coached in back-to-back video games. New Packers DC Jonathon Gannon had the go recreation in a pretzel by breaking safety guidelines and disguising coverages. Check out this screenshot proper earlier than the snap versus the place these gamers are rotating to, dropping to, and blitzing from:
Prescott had six performs ending in an interception or throw away, essentially the most in a recreation since 2025. The second worst outing was towards the Vikings final yr, and this Packers’ protection is doing comparable issues to Vikings DC Brian Flores, who’s creating pre-snap chaos on the highest stage. The Cowboys did not have a plan to make the Packers pay by focusing on the intermediate and deep elements of the sector with their WRs, and the Packers elite group of safeties stored making performs inside 15 yards of the road of scrimmage.
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The crimson zone interception was a post-snap rotation the place Evan Williams bailed from a blitz look to drop right into a quarters deep security position that he learn out the protection on the bottom of the play. Not an excessive amount of Prescott can do on that, however it fell into this chaos sorting that I am speaking about. Yahoo’s Soccer 301 Nate Tice famous that this “4 weak stress” that stresses the RB facet has given them hassle particularly.
That stated, the Cowboys have been additionally unfortunate when CeeDee Lamb slipped for an interception, and a nasty Dak recreation was nonetheless an 18th percentile EPA per play outing. Your entire offense is not damaged, however they are going to must get off extra deep photographs to get again to their potential.
(Photograph by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports activities)
Purely for fantasy, Pickens is a superb buy-low candidate. He is solely the WR23 per recreation by way of Week 6, however he is the WR13 in anticipated factors and we all know Dak to Pickens is among the higher connections within the league. They’re going to look so much higher towards the Eagles, Cardinals, Colts, 49ers and Titans.
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2. Inventory down: A.J. Brown’s agility
Brown had the worst recreation of his profession getting back from his high-ankle sprain. The drops went viral, even extending into the “arms crew” part of onside kick prevention. Brown usually would not have a arms situation, so what is going on on?
The ankle harm (and probably enjoying at a heavier weight) has labored towards his potential to twist and react to a goal that is not proper on the cash. A few his drops have been straight tied to this when he both could not sink his body on a low ball or decelerate in time to catch a ball on his again shoulder. A giant shot to the top zone additionally did not appear overly explosive, nor did it lead to an acrobatic adjustment to the ball. That was a landing alternative on a double-move towards a linebacker, and Drake Maye’s go was adequate.
On the play, Brown had a reasonably powerful 4th-and-5 rep when tapping the brakes on a comeback route. It took an additional step, and Brown had the ball batted away as a result of he did not explode again to the goal with sufficient burst. That is a straightforward completion in his prime. Earlier, Brown had a 1-on-1 go ball in man protection, however there was little or no separation after stacking the cornerback. The ball went inches over his arms, and Brown could not regulate to the ball in time over his sideline shoulder. It was an amazing ball from Maye. This in all probability is a landing in his prime.
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Brown in the end turned 15.5 anticipated half PPR factors (WR12) to simply 4.2 half PPR factors (WR60) with 3 receptions for 27 yards on 10 targets. The excellent news is that he did have 99 air yards, a 33% goal share and did not undergo a setback. Romeo Doubs (shoulder) can also be now on injured reserve, so Brown will get a ton of appears to work again into form. I would just regulate the overall upside potential within the quick time period based mostly on how he appears. I do not suppose he’ll ever be thought of a film-based top-10 WR ever once more resulting from accidents.
3. Matthew Stafford is just not OK
The Rams offense continues to be good, however it’s nowhere close to their 2025 output. Not a lot has modified when it comes to starters or scheme, and it is fairly clear to me that the explanation for the autumn off has merely been Matthew Stafford is enjoying league-average ball.
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Los Angeles continues to be fourth in RB carry success price (56%) and fourth finest in stress price allowed (26%). Davante Adams was making superior performs in 1-on-1 conditions earlier within the yr. Kyren Williams has been efficient as a quick-hitting receiving outlet. And Puka Nacua is among the finest gamers within the NFL. This stays a really robust setting for QB play. But…
The Rams are 14th in explosive go price (14%) by way of Week 6, and so they have been simply first final yr (18%). They tried a throw of 20+ air yards exterior the crimson zone on 18% of their makes an attempt final yr (Third), however that has dropped to twenty third in 2026 at simply 11%. That is nearly in half!!! A few of these deep photographs final yr have been to Terrance Ferguson out of 13-personnel, and he’ll most certainly be again in Week 8, however can we actually financial institution on a decent finish unlocking the deep go? Actually?
The truth is Nacua is usually a vertical participant however is finest inside 20 yards. They cannot throw the ball deep to Konata Mumfield, Jordan Whittington, TuTu Atwell, or whoever else they are going to rotate in at WR with out Adams for the following 6-10 weeks. This crew might use a Brian Thomas Jr., Calvin Ridley or Jerry Jeudy commerce goal proper now. Badly.
On movie, Stafford is taking the low on these hello/lo reads most of the time. He was extremely aggressive in earlier seasons however is prepared to hit Tyler Higbee or Kyren earlier within the play. It is not as a result of his arm has fallen off. He is missed a number of throws resulting from accuracy, like each QB, however his arm power nonetheless appears above common.
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The play-calling can also be getting extra conservative. The Rams have referred to as a display on 15% of their Third-and-3+ performs this yr, solely trailing the Vikings and Broncos. The league common is 7% for context there. They’ve additionally ran the ball on 8% of those performs, bringing these “do not belief our go recreation” calls to 1 / 4 of their performs. One thing is up right here, and the most recent harm replace was as dangerous because it will get for a Tremendous Bowl contender.
4. Colston Loveland is again
Caleb Williams performed a distinct model of QB coming off his hamstring harm, working a quick-hitting in-pocket type. The Bears used a number of TE units on 33 performs, the fifth-most snaps by an offense this yr. Loveland is commonly handled as extra of a hybrid WR in a few of these appears, making it simpler for him to earn a goal.
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There was a play-action first-read conversion to Loveland for 16 yards in a 2-TE set. His 14-yard TD was additionally in a 2-TE set, the place he discovered house within the scramble drill and as an alternative of being tackled on the inch-line like he had earlier this yr, he was truly in. That is the optimistic regression coming by way of for us. Loveland had Cole Kmet and Sam Roush block for him on a display on the 10-yard line, and that additionally nearly led to a rating. The next play was one other multi-TE set first-read goal, the place Loveland went viral by dropping monitor of the place he was versus the sideline whereas in the long run zone. Lengthy story quick, that is a ton of red-zone utilization by design with out Luther Burden III on the sector to compete for targets.
Loveland additionally had a second display referred to as for him, this time a delayed display in a 3-WR set.
He lined up within the slot in a 3-WR set for a first-read conversion on an out route on 4th-and-2.
Including all that up, Loveland was the TE4 on TE5 utilization in Week 6. I am not absolutely prepared to throw out video games with backups or within the rain towards Brian Flores, however I belief Week 6 greater than another week by far. Loveland in all probability faces an uphill battle to catch George Kittle for the TE3 general race. I additionally would not rule it out from Week 6. Prepare for each fantasy podcast citing “since Week 6” splits with the Bears. I will be responsible.
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5. Tanner McKee
I wish to separate McKee from the remainder of the Eagles roster and scheme right here.
McKee was truly good. He performed mistake free ball, did not have any inaccuracies, and threw the ball over the center extra usually than Jalen Hurts has. McKee’s arm is fairly good. He is a rhythm passer who will not make many performs out of construction or with attention-grabbing arm angles, however he can lead receivers by way of zone home windows and manipulate a zone defender when wanted. McKee appears fairly poised.
(Photograph by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports activities)
(Photograph by Hayden Winks)
Since 2024, McKee has thrown the ball between the hashes within the 0-20 air yard vary on 43-of-149 dropbacks. That is 29% of his dropbacks, resulting in 9.6 YPA and an 86% completion proportion with out an interception. That is nice stuff. Since 2024, Hurts has thrown to this midfield vary on 338-of-1383 dropbacks (24%), main to eight.3 YPA and 76% completions. McKee’s been higher on these throws and makes an attempt them extra usually.
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McKee’s throws to the sideline have been on the cash in Week 6, too. He gave Devonta Smith actual alternatives for chunk performs all recreation, together with on his TD seize and when he drew a DPI in man protection. There was one miscommunication between this duo on a fade versus cease route, however that occurs. The excellent news is McKee has the contact and velocity to execute this highly-used a part of the playbook. I would not downgrade Smith due to the QB play proper now.
Now, Hurts did bail the Eagles out of numerous points over time and can be higher suited on a few of these league-leading unblocked pressures. Hurts may also scramble and be extremely efficient in brief yardage, and McKee would break down instantly if he even tried it. These performs weren’t on the menu in 2026 with backups at left guard and middle in any case, so as soon as the Eagles have been on this scheme and OL mess, then Hurts’ worth turned worse. To the purpose that I believe McKee will be as productive as Hurts would’ve been this yr.
(Photograph by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports activities)
(Photograph by Hayden Winks)
Philadelphia simply has to kill some calls from the playbook. They’ve the worst beneath middle success price within the NFL, and the primary play of the sport was an unblocked stress on a blitz when McKee was beneath middle. They cannot run the ball beneath middle both, in order that they’d be finest by enjoying in additional unfold appears as a pass-first crew. We’ll see if they will regulate to that midseason.
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Speedy Hearth Week 6 Movie Notes
Malik Nabers: He is all the way in which again. I not see any knee-related points on tape. He is assured, explosive in a straight line and most significantly now adjusting to passes and making defenders miss within the open discipline with uncommon agility. He is among the best gamers within the NFL once more. JJ McCarthy is a lot extra athletic and has such a greater arm than Jameis Winston. If each are going to make errors, give me McCarthy.
Ashton Jeanty: I nonetheless have Jeanty movie issues, when it comes to imaginative and prescient, burst and drops. I believe Mike Washington Jr. deserves the early-down work he’ll be getting transferring ahead.
Xavier Worthy: He absorbed the “Rashee Rice” position as the first beneath goal in Week 6. His competitors for targets is weak, and people gamers at the moment are operating the clear-out routes. Worthy is a transparent fantasy starter with out Rice and Tyquan Thornton.
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Carnell Tate: The rookie had his finest movie recreation of the yr. A few sideline toe-tapping performs adopted up by a high-point fade ball confirmed his high quality catch radius and arms. There’s nonetheless not sufficient in-pocket consistency to totally belief this offense, however Tate appears just like the long-term high goal in Tennessee.
Kirk Cousins: He had two of the very best throws of the week, each to Tre Tucker, who’s lowkey fairly good. Tucker’s in a model of the Rashid Shaheed position as a stupid-fast vertical participant. He can run out-breaking routes to a excessive diploma, and Cousins’ accuracy and willingness to chuck it into powerful home windows has been promising.
Malik Mustapha: The 49ers robust security for MVP. Finest pound-for-pound hitter within the NFL proper now.
