Saturday’s large Large 12 showdown between No. 14 Houston and No. 10 Utah pits two of the nation’s elite offenses and options a number of fantasy-relevant gamers. The Cougars enter Rice-Eccles Stadium with a glowing 6-1 report after surviving a 35-32 nailbiter over Oklahoma State, whereas Utah escaped with a equally slim 27-24 victory over Colorado regardless of only a 28.1% postgame win expectancy.
What to anticipate from Houston
Houston’s hyper-efficient offense leads the nation in success price (54.9%) and down-set conversion price (87%) whereas rating second in factors per drive (3.72) and third in yards per drive (46). They’ve gone three-and-out on simply 9.5% of possessions (2nd within the nation) whereas main the nation in third-down conversion price (61.4%). If there’s a ding in Houston’s offensive profile, it’s the dearth of big-play capability from the run recreation, rating 122nd in yards per profitable rush (7.8 yards) and 92nd in marginal explosiveness. Houston sustains drives, protects the ball (5 turnovers) and protects QB Conner Weigman properly sufficient for him to function with out stress (18% stress price = twentieth). They must face a stingy Utah protection that ranks sixth in FBS in success price allowed (33%) and primary in performs stopped for zero or damaging yards (41.4%).
Weigman has been the architect of Houston’s ascension, finishing 134-of-198 passes for 1,771 yards and a national-leading 26 whole touchdowns to only two interceptions. His 56.8% passing success price and eight.5 yards per dropback averages are wonderful marks, and he’s an issue outdoors of construction with 115 of his 260 dashing yards approaching 14 scrambles. The previous five-star prospect simply unloaded on Oklahoma State for 343 passing yards and 5 touchdowns which boosted his yearly scoring common to a pristine 29.5 PPG which ranks fourth-best amongst P4 signal-callers.
Utah’s shutdown secondary will current Weigman’s most tough check since Houston’s slim resolution to Texas Tech in Week 3. The Utes are among the best within the nation at suppressing the cross recreation, sporting a 49% completion price (1st) and 33.6% passing success price allowed (eighth). Utah’s protection profile makes TE Patrick Overmyer essentially the most interesting Houston receiver. The transformed quarterback leads the Cougars with 56 targets, turning them into 38 receptions, 432 yards and 7 touchdowns. Overmyer’s 59.6% success price leads Houston’s common pass-catchers outdoors WR Amare Thomas, and 58% of his receptions have generated first downs. Overmyer additionally strikes all through the formation, with 45% of his catches coming from the slot and 24% whereas aligned inline. That flexibility is effective towards Utah’s zone-heavy scheme.
Thomas, in the meantime, carries extra volatility. His current lull had been attributed to elevated defensive consideration, however he detonated for 2 scores towards Oklahoma State. Thomas’ 26% goal share and seven.5 targets per recreation common imply he’s nonetheless an important part of Houston’s offense, averaging a strong 14.7 PPG, though Utah’s defensive backs rank twelfth nationally in havoc price which might subdue the Cougars’ cross recreation. WR Trent Walker profiles as a possession-oriented flex possibility given the bye-heavy Week 8 recreation slate, with Walker having recorded 50+ receiving yards in every of his final 4 video games, together with 107 yards and a landing final week towards Oklahoma State.
Houston’s backfield is a split-carry scenario the place RBs Makhi Hughes and Re’Shawn Sanford take turns producing fantasy-relevant scores, with Weigman vulturing six dashing touchdowns making it tough to decipher which rusher would be the most well-liked possibility on a weekly foundation. Utah has allowed solely a 35.1% dashing success price and 1.78 yards after contact per carry, limiting the backfield’s ceiling.
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What to anticipate from Utah
On the Utah facet, QB Devon Dampier has accomplished 68.6% of his passes for 1,412 yards, 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions whereas including 246 yards and three scores on the bottom, which equates to roughly 25 PPG. Colorado pressured him into two interceptions on Saturday, however Dampier nonetheless threw for 278 yards and three touchdowns, together with two scores to WR Braden Pegan. Utah head coach Morgan Scalley admitted, “I don’t know that we must always’ve received this recreation outdoors of the rating,” whereas criticizing the Utes’ turnovers, red-zone execution, third-down work and total passing effectivity.
Minor hiccups apart, the Utes have a good matchup towards a Houston protection permitting a 44.5% passing success price (109th) and seven.1 yards per dropback (104th). Oklahoma State piled up 499 whole yards and 365 via the air final week on them, making Dampier a bona fide QB1, as typical.
RB Wayshawn Parker is Utah’s premier skill-position participant. He has amassed 597 yards and 7 touchdowns on 89 carries, averaging 6.71 yards per try with a 53.9% success price, 3.24 yards earlier than contact and an excellent 0.34 missed tackles pressured per rush. His receiving profile is equally worthwhile, having secured 19 catches on 23 targets for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns for 25.9 PPG. HC Scalley has referred to as Parker a “full again,” particularly praising his added weight, blocking and downfield effort. Houston has defended dashing effectivity moderately properly, permitting simply 4.1 YPC (thirty third), however its protection additionally ranks 113th in factors allowed per scoring alternative and 123rd in red-zone landing price. Parker is locked-in as a RB1.
Pegan closes out the first Utah stack. His 32-422-6 line has generated roughly 16 PPG, and he’s cemented because the workforce’s WR1 having obtained 11+ targets in three of the final 4 video games. Houston’s secondary has allowed 15.4 yards per profitable cross (94th) and a 7.7% explosive-play price (124th), creating an inviting atmosphere for Pegan and dart-throw flex WR Ricky Johnson. TE Noah Bennee has accrued 13 catches for 206 yards and three touchdowns and is a viable touchdown-dependent streamer who averages a good 7.5 PPG.
Bottomline
The Over/Beneath shot up from 50.5 factors to 56.5, and I nonetheless suppose that’s in all probability too low contemplating how a lot firepower these two packages possess.
