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UFC Vegas 122: Allen vs. Duncan continues on the prelims with a struggle between Felipe Franco and Brendson Ribeiro within the mild heavyweight division. Take a look at our s for our Franco-Ribeiro prediction and decide.
Felipe Franco (11-2, 1-1 UFC) rebounded from a unanimous-decision loss to Mario Pinto in March by stopping Levi Rodrigues Jr. with second-round punches in July. Shifting from heavyweight to mild heavyweight delivered his first UFC victory, as he comes into his struggle this weekend towards Brendson Ribeiro in search of one other end.
Brendson Ribeiro (17-11, 2-6 UFC) has misplaced 4 straight, most not too long ago dropping a unanimous choice to Magomed Tuchalov in July. Beforehand, Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev submitted him with a first-round rear-naked choke in April, leaving him in search of a desperately wanted rebound as he comes into his struggle this weekend towards Felipe Franco.
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UFC Vegas 122 Odds, courtesy of :
UFC Vegas 122 Odds: Felipe Franco-Brendson Ribeiro Odds
Felipe Franco: -395
Brendson Ribeiro: +310
Over 1.5 Rounds: +135
Underneath 1.5 Rounds: -175
Why Felipe Franco Will Win
Felipe Franco ought to beat Brendson Ribeiro as a result of his mixture of explosive offense and wrestling creates a matchup for the veteran. Reasonably than relying solely on a knockout, Franco can threaten punches earlier than altering ranges and forcing Ribeiro to defend takedowns.
That layered assault is the clearest distinction between these fighters, significantly when Ribeiro commits to his personal offensive placing combos. Franco ought to use these exchanges to shut distance, set up management and forestall Ribeiro from discovering a cushty rhythm at vary.
Ribeiro enters on a four-fight shedding streak, whereas Franco has momentum after successful his most up-to-date look at mild heavyweight. These outcomes don’t assure one other defeat, however they strengthen the case for Franco imposing his strengths as a substitute of buying and selling recklessly.
Franco’s grappling background additionally makes Ribeiro’s submission threats much less intimidating, though he nonetheless wants to guard his neck throughout takedown entries. As soon as on high, Franco can prioritize positional management and floor strikes, making Ribeiro defend repeatedly moderately than launch sustained offense.
The most important hazard is permitting Ribeiro to land cleanly earlier than Franco establishes stress, so disciplined entries will matter from the opening bell. I anticipate Franco’s wrestling to create the decisive benefit, establishing damaging floor strikes and a stoppage victory.
Why Brendson Ribeiro Will Win
Brendson Ribeiro’s strongest case for beating Felipe Franco begins along with his attain, which supplies him a possibility to manage placing distance. Ribeiro owns an eighty-one-inch attain in contrast with Franco’s seventy-six inches, making straight punches an necessary weapon towards the advancing favourite.
That benefit issues provided that Ribeiro makes use of disciplined footwork moderately than backing towards the fence and permitting Franco to shut distance. By protecting exchanges lengthy and transient, he could make Franco reset repeatedly as a substitute of settling right into a stress recreation constructed round takedowns.
Ribeiro additionally has significantly extra skilled expertise, coming into at seventeen wins and eleven losses in contrast with Franco’s eleven wins and two defeats. That have affords a possible benefit when exchanges grow to be chaotic, though his 4 consecutive losses make this an uphill task.
Franco’s wrestling is the apparent hazard, so Ribeiro should prioritize stability and positioning earlier than chasing spectacular offense or prolonged punching combos. His greatest upset alternative may arrive when Franco closes distance, making a window for a counter earlier than the struggle reaches the bottom.
Ribeiro doesn’t must dominate each minute if he could make his size produce the struggle’s most consequential offensive second. I’d body the upset as a knockout victory, with Ribeiro catching Franco coming into vary moderately than successful by means of sustained management.
Closing Felipe Franco-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Choose
Felipe Franco is my decide to beat Brendson Ribeiro as a result of his wrestling affords a clearer path to controlling this matchup. Franco’s takedown risk ought to forestall Ribeiro from freely exploiting his five-inch attain benefit throughout exchanges.
Ribeiro stays harmful at distance, the place straight punches may punish Franco for speeding ahead with out preparation. Franco should shut house behind strikes, forcing defensive reactions earlier than altering ranges moderately than making an attempt takedowns from too far-off.
The grappling numbers favor Franco, whereas Ribeiro’s reported takedown protection suggests alternatives to ascertain high place. As soon as there, Franco ought to prioritize management and measured floor strikes as a substitute of sacrificing place chasing a direct end.
Ribeiro’s expertise may assist him survive tough stretches, however his current shedding streak makes sustained confidence one other concern. Franco enters with momentum following his newest victory, giving him cause to belief his method.
Count on Franco to stress, safe takedowns and accumulate harm and get the second-round TKO.
Closing Felipe Franco-Brendson Ribeiro Prediction & Choose: Felipe Franco (-395), UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-175)
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