A staff that has received and coated 11 of its final 12 video games dealing with an opponent that has but to money a ticket this season.
The one NFL franchise off to a 4-0 ATS begin touring throughout the nation to play a staff that scored the most important of seven upsets in Week 4.
Commercial
And the most recent version of one of many NFL’s fiercest rivalries — this one that includes a betting line that hasn’t been seen in twenty years.
Every of those clashes are included in my Week 5 NFL betting developments report — as are two West Coast battles involving 4 of the highest six Tremendous Bowl favorites.
Eagles vs. Jaguars (-7.5, 42) in London
Moneyline: Eagles +280/Jaguars -355
• Philadelphia squandered a 20-10 lead at residence towards the Rams in Week 4, giving up two touchdowns within the last 4 minutes to lose 24-20 — the staff’s second straight defeat.
In failing to money as a 3.5-point residence underdog towards Los Angeles, the Eagles are actually 0-4 ATS to begin a season for the primary time in franchise historical past.
Commercial
Philly hasn’t did not cowl in 5 straight video games since ending the 2023 season in an 0-6 ATS funk.
• The Jaguars went to Cincinnati in Week 4 and held off the Bengals 22-17 as a 2.5-point underdog.
Jacksonville is now driving an 11-1 SU and ATS common season sizzling streak. Over this stretch, the Jaguars are 7-0 SU and ATS as a favourite and have tallied eight wins by 14 factors or extra.
• Previous to Sunday’s loss to the Rams, Philadelphia had received 5 consecutive video games as an underdog. The final time the Eagles have been a regular-season underdog of greater than six factors: Week 6 of 2021.
On the intense aspect, Philadelphia has defeated the Jaguars 5 consecutive instances since 2010 (4-1 ATS). In the newest assembly two years in the past, the Eagles prevailed 28-23 however did not money as a 7.5-point residence favourite.
Commercial
• With this recreation happening in London, it is value mentioning that Jacksonville is 7-7 SU and ATS at its abroad residence since 2013.
However here is the extra intriguing NFL betting pattern: The winner coated the purpose unfold in all 14 video games.
• Jacksonville’s protection has now held 11 of its final 12 foes to fewer than 21 factors whereas yielding a median of 14.1 PPG.
Conversely, the Eagles are permitting 23.3 PPG throughout their final six video games (playoffs included), surrendering between 20 and 27 factors in each.
Orchard Park, NY – October 4: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws a cross within the first quarter. The New England Patriots performed the Buffalo Payments at Highmark Stadium on October 4, 2026.
(Boston Globe through Getty Pictures)
Raiders at Patriots (-3.5, 45.5)
Moneyline: Raiders +165/Patriots -200
• In an AFC West battle of unbeatens, the Raiders got here out on the quick finish of a 30-27 loss to visiting Kansas Metropolis in Week 4. Las Vegas did cowl the 4.5-point unfold, although, to enhance to an NFL-best 4-0 ATS.
Commercial
Going again to final season, the Raiders are driving the next optimistic NFL betting developments: 6-1 ATS general, 6-1 ATS as an underdog and 3-0 ATS as a customer.
• Patriots quarterback Drake Maye had one landing cross and 6 turnovers by way of three video games. He then went to Buffalo in Week 4 and flipped the script by tossing three TDs in a 29-26 win over the beforehand undefeated Payments (even when he had two extra turnovers).
In producing the most important Week 4 upset as a 7-point highway underdog, the Patriots improved to 3-1 ATS this season and 14-4 ATS of their final 18 common season video games. Inside that 18-game stretch, New England is 6-2 ATS at residence and 9-2 ATS as a favourite.
Commercial
• Las Vegas is 3-0 SU and ATS towards the Patriots since 2022. That features a 20-13 upset as a 2.5-point highway underdog in final yr’s season opener.
Beforehand, although, the Raiders had misplaced six straight video games to New England (1-5 ATS).
• Las Vegas has scored at the very least 26 factors in each recreation and is averaging 28.8 PPG, which ranks eighth within the NFL.
In the meantime, even after Sunday’s 29-point outburst in Buffalo, New England continues to be netting simply 16.2 PPG. Solely Tennessee (13.8) and Miami (11.5) have been extra anemic.
Throw of their last two playoff video games in 2025 — the AFC Championship Recreation and Tremendous Bowl — and the Patriots are averaging simply 14.7 PPG of their final six.
Commercial
Bears (-2.5, 45.5) at Packers
Moneyline: Bears -150/Packers +125
• Chicago has gotten by simply advantageous with out injured beginning quarterback Caleb Williams, posting two residence wins over the Eagles and Jets by a mixed rating of 50-19. The Bears simply coated the purpose unfold in each contests, bettering to 3-1 SU and ATS on the season.
Going again to Week 3 of final season and together with two postseason video games, Chicago is within the midst of a 15-6 SU and 16-4-1 ATS run (6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS on the highway, and 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS as a favourite).
• Inexperienced Bay rebounded from an unsightly 35-14 Thursday evening residence loss to Atlanta in Week 3 with a 17-14 victory at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point highway favourite — its first unfold cowl of 2026.
Commercial
Regardless of that, the Packers nonetheless carry the next unfavourable ATS streaks into this contest (playoffs included): 4-14-2 general, 1-5-1 at residence, 2-6-1 as an underdog, 4-8-2 towards NFC North foes (all for the reason that begin of 2024) and 0-3-1 towards the Bears (all as a favourite).
• Inexperienced Bay dropped its last two video games to the Bears final season, each in Chicago (22-16 in additional time in Week 16 as a 1-point underdog and 31-17 within the playoffs as a 1.5-point favourite).
Guess the Chicago Bears to cowl the unfold at sportsbooks
These outcomes apart, current NFL betting developments favor the Packers on this NFC North rivalry: Since 2008 — and together with two postseason matchups — Inexperienced Bay is 30-8 SU and 26-11-1 ATS towards the Bears, together with 15-3 SU and 12-5-1 ATS at Lambeau Subject.
Commercial
The Packers have been favored in all 18 of these residence video games. Actually, that is the primary time for the reason that 2006 season opener that Chicago is favored at Lambeau.
• The Bears’ final three video games stayed underneath the whole, however all have been within the Windy Metropolis.
The over is 8-3 in Chicago’s final 11 as a customer, together with a season-opening 59-37 win at Carolina. Additionally, every of the Packers’ final three residence video games have cleared the closing whole.
49ers at Seahawks (-3, 45.5)
Moneyline: 49ers +135/Seahawks -165
• San Francisco improved to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with a 24-14 Week 4 overcome Denver as a three-point residence chalk. It was the staff’s third double-digit victory.
Commercial
The 49ers, who’re one in every of three remaining unbeatens, are actually 16-5 SU and 13-8 ATS for the reason that 2025 season kicked off. Nonetheless, they’re simply 3-4 SU/ATS as an underdog.
• Seattle bounced again from a shocking 33-31 loss at Washington as an 8.5-point favourite with a 30-23 Week 4 victory over the still-winless Chargers (pushing as seven-point residence chalk).
Since their Week 1 residence loss to the 49ers final season — and together with their Tremendous Bowl run — the Seahawks are 20-3 SU and 16-6-1 ATS general; 10-1 SU and 6-4-1 ATS at residence; and 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS towards the NFC West.
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 04: Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers runs with the ball within the third quarter towards the Denver Broncos at Levi’s Stadium on October 04, 2026 in Santa Clara, California.
(Lachlan Cunningham through Getty Pictures)
Seattle additionally has received 17 of its final 18 as a favourite — the lone setback was at Washington two weeks in the past — whereas going 12-5-1 ATS.
Commercial
• The 49ers adopted their season opener towards the Rams in Australia with three consecutive residence video games. So this marks the staff’s first contest on the highway, the place final yr San Francisco went 8-3 SU and ATS (playoffs included).
Curiously, the 49ers’ 2025 season began with a 17-13 win at Seattle as a 2.5-point favourite and ended with a 41-6 divisional playoff loss at Seattle as a seven-point underdog.
Over the previous six common seasons, San Francisco is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS towards the Seahawks, together with 4-0 SU and ATS as a customer.
• One NFL betting pattern that the Seahawks can lean into this week: Together with final yr’s playoff conflict, the favourite has received eight of the final 9 on this rivalry (7-2 ATS).
Commercial
Additionally of word: The underneath is 6-2 within the final eight common season conferences, with the final three in a row staying low.
Solely two of the final 9 head-to-head matchups have featured greater than 45 mixed factors.
Payments at Rams (-3, 54.5)
Moneyline: Payments +135/Rams -165
• Buffalo entered Week 4 as one in every of a trio of 3-0 SU and ATS squads. Nonetheless, the Payments exited Week 4 with a 29-26 loss to the rival Patriots as a 7-point residence favourite.
Even with that shocking defeat, Buffalo has received 34 of its final 45 common season video games (25-20 ATS).
Solely twice throughout this span have the Payments dropped back-to-back video games: Weeks 5 and 6 in 2025 (New England and Atlanta) and Weeks 4 and 5 in 2026 (Baltimore and Houston).
Commercial
• Not solely did the Rams rally late for a 24-20 victory at Philadelphia in Week 4, additionally they managed to cowl as a 3.5-point highway favourite.
Los Angeles is now 22-10 ATS in its final 32 common season contests, together with 17-7 ATS when laying factors.
• The Payments are simply 14-11 SU and 12-13 ATS of their final 25 video games away from Buffalo. That features a 44-42 loss on the Rams as a 3.5-point highway favourite in Week 14 of 2024.
Nonetheless, since that recreation, the Payments have delivered three straight common season upsets as an underdog: 48-42 at Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog (Week 15 in 2024); 41-40 versus Baltimore as a 1.5-point pup (Week 1 in 2025); and 28-21 at Kansas Metropolis as a 2.5-point ‘canine (Week 9 in 2025).
Commercial
Guess Buffalo Payments to cowl the unfold at sportsbooks
• By 4 weeks, the Rams have performed simply as soon as at SoFi Stadium; in Week 2, they buried the Giants 28-6 as a 6.5-point chalk.
With that, Los Angeles carries a six-game residence successful streak (5-1 ATS) into this Monday Night time Soccer battle. Moreover, relationship to their upset of the Payments in 2024, the Rams are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS at residence.
• This is your quirky NFL betting pattern of the week: The underneath is 9-2 in Buffalo’s final 11 prime-time highway video games.
None of these video games cleared 45 whole factors.
