Fantasy Soccer: All these struggling offenses have new play-callers — is there any hope for Week 3 and past?

I ponder if thriller or motion motion pictures have warped our sense of expectation. Take The Karate Child, Whiplash (underrated), or Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, for instance. Our foremost character will get put right into a state of affairs the place they must be taught new expertise; the stakes couldn’t be greater, and all of it culminates in an occasion the place they arrive out (largely) on prime. Nonetheless, it’s the mastering-of-abilities half that we gloss over.

Coaching-camp montages and clips of observe don’t give us a way of how a lot a participant is retaining. It results in the idea that extra time equates to larger absorption. But when the final two weeks have proven us something, it’s that progress isn’t linear. Generally it takes a second of readability for issues to click on.

And for just a few groups, that hasn’t occurred but. 

Perhaps The Chargers Ought to've Stayed In San Diego

A thought simply hit me, and I’ll share it with you utilizing the present of hindsight bias. 

We’ve usually checked out Justin Herbert as a >. He’ll verify all his reads, make the danger calculations on the fly and throw the optimum cross. Herbert’s been extra aggressive as of late, however you’ll nonetheless catch shades of it relying on the state of affairs.

Anyway, distinction his play-execution method to OC Mike McDaniel’s fashion. The man who >, however has the sneaker mindset of a 20-year-old. You couldn’t discover two extra dissimilar individuals outdoors of their love for soccer. So, speaking the main points is likely to be exhausting for the Chargers’ OC and QB. 

To be clear, and as Josh signifies above, this can be a collective failure. I’ll get to Herbert’s half in all of this in a bit, however even staying on the staff stage provides us an concept of what’s modified.

• Pre-Snap Movement: 50.0% (2025), 73.8% (2026)

• Play-Motion Cross Charge (Early Downs): 32.0%, 42.5%

• Performs per Recreation: 64.4, 56.5 

Keep in mind, heavy movement earlier than the snap with an intermediate or deep shot off a play-action idea was a staple of the Dolphins offense. And we liked it. Properly, we favored it, largely as a result of it labored. Or when it did, we’d get the explosive performs that will present up within the field scores of Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. However there’s a tradeoff. 

Pre-snap movement may help receivers >. The payoff is throwing the ball farther downfield, and that’s what Herbert has executed by way of two weeks. His passing aDOT is up 19.4% to 9.2 air yards. On play-action reads, it’s at 10.6! 

However extra time earlier than the snap plus longer routes downfield takes extra time without work the clock, leaving the Chargers with fewer performs per sport. Or, stated one other means, they’ve decreased their variety of probabilities to select up yards underneath the idea an effectivity bump will give them the sting. This all sounds cheap as a result of we’ve seen it work earlier than. And that’s a part of why the finger-pointing goes towards No. 10.

• aDOT (utilizing Play Motion): 8.0 (2025), 10.6 (2026)

• Stress Charge: 48.5%, 65.0%

• CPOE: +1.57% (2025), -6.24% (2026)

Admittedly, I’m presenting you with Herbert’s numbers in dangerous religion. Positive, for those who have been asking your QB to throw farther underneath extra strain, a steep drop of their completion proportion shouldn’t be a shock. Such is the case for the Chargers’ QB1. However I’ll provide you with just a few extra metrics to contextualize the state of affairs.

• (Early Down) Cross Charge Over Expectation: +1.91% (2025), -10.5% (2026)

• Adj. Yards Earlier than Contact per Att.: 0.68, 0.75

• Yardage Wanted on Third Downs: 6.7, 8.5

Like all McDaniel system, the play sequencing depends on the mix of the frenzy and the cross. Accordingly, L.A.’s early-down PROE has dropped as in comparison with ’25. However Omarion Hampton’s push from the inside offensive line to get to the LOS hasn’t improved. The result’s Herbert and co. needing to go an additional two yards for a brand new set of downs. And even when he’s discovered the suitable throw, calamity nonetheless follows.

As a result of there are so few samples, intermediate makes an attempt with at the very least a yard of separation will act like an anchor to a passer’s CPOE. That must be an “straightforward” completion. However Herbert's receivers have already got three drops collectively. Which might be why Herbert began to view the shorter passes as the higher possibility >.   

The losses are the exclamation level on all this. With out the complete mastery of the offense, flashes are all we’ll get till issues click on between Herbert and McDaniel. Ladd McConkey continues to be a WR2 (when wholesome), and Hampton ranks ninth in staff rush charge. Together with Herbert, they’re your solely viable starters till the QB-OC thoughts meld is full.

Getting the Bucs Again On Monitor

So, I wished to revisit the Buccaneers after > from their inexplicable loss to the Browns. To not stroll something again, however to provide a extra forward-looking view. Tampa has three gamers with a top-100 ADP. Even some stability to the offense can be good. Let’s search for the indicators that issues are again on monitor.

No, I’m not advocating for Baker Mayfield taking over an additional job as a lead blocker. Let’s concentrate on Bucky Irving’s large run. Over the previous two weeks, Tampa has cut up its early-down play calls between run and cross (-1.27% PROE). Which means Irving’s outcomes have as a lot of an impression as Mayfield’s. And we noticed that affect on Sunday.

• (Early-Down) Speeding Success Charge: 62.5% (at CIN), 37.5% (vs CLE)

• Pressured Missed Sort out Charge: 62.5%, 12.5%

• Third-Down Yardage Wanted: 6.0, 9.2

Sadly for my argument, I’d count on to see RBs bouncing off Bengals’ defenders at a excessive charge. However an 80% drop isn’t simply concerning the opponent. Irving’s adjusted yards per contact additionally fell by greater than half. And the cascade impact put Mayfield at practically 10 yards to go on third down. His Week 3 rival (Vikings) won’t permit it, however Weeks 4-9 characteristic favorable matchups for Irving, making life simpler for the passing sport. However Mayfield may also assist himself.

I’ll make a easy assertion: making large performs is an effective factor! However a “peaks and valleys” passing sport has a brief half-life after a giant burst. And it appeared like Mayfield understood that in opposition to Cincinnati.

• Passing aDOT (early downs, play-action): 6.0 (at CIN), 11.3 (vs CLE)

• Passing Success Charge: 47.8%, 38.5%

• Stress Charge: 18.5%, 34.6%

Not less than on the floor, these are the identical issues the Chargers are experiencing. A much less environment friendly operating sport results in an overcompensating aerial assault. A 3rd of Mayfield’s makes an attempt on early downs utilizing play-action ideas in opposition to the Bengals was a primary down. That very same charge fell to twenty.0% in opposition to the Browns as his aDOT practically doubled.

Mayfield had 4 pass-catchers common eight or extra yards AFTER the catch per reception in Week 1. From Irving to Chris Godwin Jr., a short-to-intermediate plan not solely prolonged drives, however (largely) saved Mayfield upright. Ted Hurst and Tez Johnson will all the time be downfield threats. However discovering a rhythm along with his inside receivers will maintain the offense on schedule and fantasy managers completely satisfied. 

Let's Take A Stroll Down Beale Narrative Road

I began the Eagles protection within the >, underneath the idea that they’d prey on Cam Ward’s mistake-prone nature. However as I saved getting extra updates concerning the sport and Philadelphia’s slender loss, I made a decision to take a stroll down Narrative Road concerning Tennessee’s sudden reversal of fortune on offense.

Take 1: HC Brian Daboll nonetheless is aware of the way to sport plan.

Nothing concerning the Titans’ Week 1 offense indicated they may hold with the Eagles. Jayden Daniels’ mobility and Stefon Diggs’ route-running expertise have been the Commanders’ superpower in opposition to them the prior week. Tennessee can’t boast the identical expertise. However there was one thing about Philadelphia’s protection that Daboll might assault.

Earlier than anybody with a 215 space code begins hollering at me, I acknowledge this is only one play. However Sunday was Tony Pollard’s first outing with a speeding success charge at or above 50.0% in opposition to a stable speeding protection since Week 3 of final 12 months. And Tyjae Spears wasn’t too far behind his RB1 with 70 all-purpose yards.

The outcomes don’t matter to us as a result of the single-digit PPR level totals are insignificant. However Philadelphia closed out the ultimate month of the ’25 season as a league-average run protection, returned most of its starters and opened 2026 permitting the seventh-most first downs on the bottom to RBs. Fittingly, Week 2 was when Daboll, the previous Giants’ HC who performed in opposition to the Eagles twice a 12 months, determined to regulate Tennessee’s offensive tendencies.

• PROE: +5.4% (Week 1), -20.1% (Week 2)

• Pre-Snap Movement: 45.7%, 63.6%

• Beneath-Heart Passing Charge: 8.6%, 27.3%

Once more, I’m making an attempt to not concentrate on the outcomes. As an alternative, let’s search for the indicators of an offense ready for its opponent. And at the very least for this one matchup, the Titans understood the project by pulling on the levers wanted to restrict the Eagles’ possessions whereas maximizing theirs. They averaged over 25 yards per drive for the primary time since taking part in the Mahomes-less Chiefs. Even higher, Ward confirmed some indicators of life as a QB.

Take 2: Cam Ward is shopping for into the way to be an efficient passer.

I’ll be the primary to confess Ward is >. However let’s examine his passing charts over his final two video games.

He’s throwing fewer passes to the boundary whereas permitting his receivers to work after the catch. His CPOE flipping from -5.6% to +3.4% is our first encouraging signal. However so is his YAC per completion practically doubling from 3.9 to 7.7. And that’s not from a single play.

Elic Ayomanor picked up chunk performs on two intermediate targets. Spears (14.0 YAC per reception) and Pollard (8.0) additionally contributed to giving the offense a recent set of downs. And regardless that Carnell Tate solely turned in 27 scoreless yards, his shortened aDOT (9.8) and team-leading goal share (29.4%) are indicators of a constructive shift.

With extra constructive matchups of their future, name me “Titans curious” for the subsequent month.

No Kubiak. No Drawback.

Since Seattle is 2-0 with the second-best level differential (+27), I virtually forgot they’d a brand new play-caller. As a result of it’s not prefer it’s mattered for the general WR3 in most drafts.

Watching Jaxon Smith-Njigba is like that scene in Sherlock Holmes the place Robert Downey Jr. > how he’s going to beat a bare-knuckle boxer. You already know it’s coming, and the end result continues to be a shock. And as JSN is the one WR with top-three marks in catches, yards and TDs, the “new Klint Kubiak,” OC Brian Fleury, deserves some reward. That’s very true with Drew Lock beginning rather than Sam Darnold.

However then there’s additionally Jadarian Value’s two-week output to contemplate.

The excellent news is that Value appears the a part of a Seahawks’ RB. Fleury has constructed on Kubiak’s use of outside-zone blocking schemes to offer speeding lanes, pushing Seattle’s utilization charge from 33.5% in ’25 to 48.3% by way of two weeks. Undeniably, Value has the burst and energy to get to the formation’s boundary and up the sphere. However we haven’t seen sufficient of him. 

• Speeding Charge: 50.0% (Week 1), 57.5% (Week 2)

• Routes per Dropback: 26.0%, 32.5%

• Objective-line Share: N/A, 25.0%

Whereas Value took a backseat to Jeremiyah Love in faculty, a first-round RB does carry workload expectations. Positive, it's good to see his utilization ticking up, however he was nonetheless competing with George Holani and Emanuel Wilson for touches earlier than getting damage in Week 2. It’s dangerous sufficient Zach Charbonnet could also be training within the >. Coupled with a shared backfield proper out of the gate, Value's alternative stage is the worst-case situation. However he’s proven he has the expertise to alter Fleury’s thoughts.

• Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 3.96, eighth (out of 39 qualifiers – min. 30% staff speeding charge)

• Pressured Missed Sort out Charge: 30.4%, seventh

• Explosive Run Charge: 13.0%, T-4th

Value’s superior metrics again up what we’ve seen on sport day. And for those who give any credence to PFF’s charting, he’s but to permit a strain or sack on pass-blocking snaps. In his solely full sport, he took 50% of the carries with a 40% route charge. Together with his shoulder harm not thought of a lingering concern, Value turns into a buy-low candidate for these trying to find a low-end RB2.