It occurs yearly. A workforce lights the NFL world on hearth with Tremendous Bowl hope and expectation within the preseason, solely to flop and fall in need of a Lombardi as soon as the season begins. And by “it occurs yearly,” we actually imply it occurs yearly.
The Los Angeles Rams entered the 2026 season as +500 — that’s, 5-1 — Tremendous Bowl favorites. You already know what’s occurred since — the Rams are at the moment 2-4, victims of harm and curiously unhealthy performances. A Tremendous Bowl continues to be very a lot in play, but when Los Angeles finally ends up failing to win all of it, they will be part of an illustrious lineage.
As Yahoo Sports activities senior betting analyst Ben Fawkes notes, not one of many groups previously 30 years that started the season with +500 or higher odds to win the Tremendous Bowl really ended up successful. Twenty groups started the yr with these sorts of favorable situations, and all twenty failed to shut the deal. Some failed early, some solely fell brief within the ultimate seconds of the Tremendous Bowl.
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Here is the complete record:
For example, everybody knew the 2007 Patriots had been completely loaded, which is why they went off at +250 and received each sport proper up till they confronted the Giants within the Tremendous Bowl. The 2014 Seahawks (+450) had been coming off a Tremendous Bowl victory and had been poised to seize one other, proper up till the Patriots’ Malcolm Butler intervened. Most just lately, the 2024 Chiefs (+500) bulldozed their manner via the common season with a 15-2 document, and cruised proper up till they ran out of gasoline towards the Eagles within the Tremendous Bowl.
There are two elements at play right here. First is the inherent unpredictability of soccer. A workforce getting +500 odds earlier than the season even begins solely really has an implied likelihood of 16.67 % of successful the Tremendous Bowl. And as any Patriots fan who remembers Manning-to-Tyree or the Philly Particular can let you know, there isn’t any such factor as sure Tremendous Bowl victory earlier than kickoff.
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“It is one of many issues that bettors and the followers love concerning the NFL,” Fawkes says. “If it was that straightforward, then everybody would simply guess on the favourite and accumulate their winnings at +500, +400, +300. And lots of people can be residing on small, good islands.”
The second issue is the alchemy in how preseason odds are calculated. Sportsbooks, analysts, columnists and followers alike all start with a baseline of expectation primarily based on prior-year outcomes. Groups that had been good final yr, assuming no main personnel losses, will possible be good once more this yr. It is then that group psychology takes over; when bettors start flocking to 1 workforce over all others, sportsbooks will alter the road accordingly to guard themselves.
“The true probabilities (of successful) aren’t essentially the percentages which might be being provided,” Fawkes says. “Particularly with a workforce with numerous public groundswell and help just like the Rams, oddsmakers are going to bump these up much more.”
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Wanting over that record of preseason Tremendous Bowl favorites that fell brief, you possibly can spot this apparent pattern: bettors flocking to acquainted groups, whether or not it is Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs, Tom Brady’s Patriots or the mid-2010s Legion of Increase Seahawks. Familiarity attracts cash.
Sportsbooks attempt to restrict their publicity to important losses by reducing the percentages of notable or often-bet groups; it is why LeBron James’ 76ers have low odds now, and why Tiger Woods had low odds each time he entered a event even when he was hardly capable of stroll the course.
The groups that come out of nowhere — the Kurt Warner-led Rams of 1999, as an illustration, or the Nick Foles-led Eagles again in 2017 — are those that repay, just because they’re so surprising. (In line with BetMGM, this yr’s largest liabilities for sportsbooks are the Raiders, Steelers and Browns, ought to any of them handle an inconceivable Tremendous Bowl win.)
As all the time, it is price remembering that casinos do not get constructed as a result of they lose cash:
The Rams particularly ended up on this scenario due to a confluence of things; the workforce might nicely have been one of the best within the league final yr, falling simply 4 factors in need of a Tremendous Bowl look. The addition of Myles Garrett solely bolstered their probabilities, in idea, main bettors to flock to the Rams.
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On the day earlier than the 2026 season opened, based on BetMGM, Rams Tremendous Bowl futures led the NFL in each ticket proportion (9.5 %) and deal with (cash wagered, 15.7 %). That potential legal responsibility had moved the road from its opening at +900 to +500. Right this moment, that line stands at +1200, though the Rams nonetheless have the second-highest ticket and deal with percentages, behind Buffalo. (Your present chief: San Francisco at +550.)
The explanations for the Rams’ sudden downfall embrace accidents and a corresponding lack of depth, issues that look apparent on reflection however minimal within the second. There’s nonetheless loads of time for Los Angeles to get itself again heading in the right direction and validate the religion of these many preseason bettors, but when the Rams cannot pull it off, they will be part of some notable firm.