He PSG He continues to sit on the throne of Europe. The French team once again won the Champions League after beating Arsenal and thus closed the club season. From that moment on, the focus shifts to World from the United States, Mexico and Canada, the first edition with 48 selectionswhich will start in just a few days and that can mark the destiny of the next Ballon d’Or. The race is more open than ever: Harry Kane tops Betfair forecasts with a 19.6% of probabilities, ahead of Ousmane Dembélé, with a 14.2%and Declan Rice, with a 10.6%. No candidate exceeds 20%, a perfect photograph of the equality that surrounds the award given by France Football.
According to market data analyzed by Betfairthe top 20 favorites they concentrate the 90.7% of the probabilities, while the other 21 candidates barely gather 9.3%. The top-20 looks like this: Harry Kane lead with a 19.6%followed by Ousmane Dembele with a 14.2%, Declan Rice with a 10.6%Michael Olise with 8%, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Lamine Yamal with 7.1%, Vitinha with 5.3%, Kylian Mbappé with a 4.2%Désiré Doué with 2.5%, Erling Haaland with 1.9%, Raphinha, Bruno Fernandes and Julián Álvarez with 1.2%, Lionel MessiPedri, Vinícius Júnior, Bukayo Saka, Achraf Hakimi and Federico Valverde with 1%, and Cristiano Ronaldo with a 0.8%. Two Englishmen and a Frenchman appear on the first step of a fight that reaches the World without a clear owner.
kane He will land in the World Cup as the first favorite. The forward of the Bayern Munich accumulate that 19.6% of options after an outstanding season: 61 goals and 7 assists in 51 matches, BundesligaDFB Pokal and German Super Cup in the pocket, Champions League semi-finals and 14 points in Europe, only one less than Kylian Mbappé. The numbers support his candidacy and place him ahead of everyone. It’s missing the icing, and that icing is in the Worldwhere a great individual performance can completely move the predictions and change the order of the race.
PSG’s weight in the fight
Dembele appears in second position with a 14.2% of probabilities, pushed by a season of collective command of the PSG. The Parisian team conquered five titles during the course 2025-26among them the Ligue 1 and the Champions Leagueand that domain has also been moved to Ballon d’Or. Not traveling alone on the list: Kvaratskhelia adds a 7.1%, Vitinha a 5.3%, Désiré Doue a 2.5% and Achraf Hakimi a 1%. Among the five footballers of the Paris Saint Germain they reach a 30.1% probability of winning the individual prize, a fact that measures the impact of the team Luis Enrique in the race.
Rice He appears very close to Dembélé. The English midfielder Arsenal gather a 10.6% of options according to the analysis of Betfair after having the best season of his career: champion of the Premier Leaguefinalist of the Champions League and protagonist of great European nights. From behind they resist Michael Olisewith a 8%, Lamine Yamalwith a 7.1%and Kylian Mbappéwith a 4.2%. The three keep their candidacy intact despite not having closed a great collective season. He World It now remains the scenario that can propel them suddenly.