After 490 regular-season factors and a stunning, and maybe untimely, run to the Tremendous Bowl in Mike Vrabel’s first yr and Drake Maye’s second yr, the Patriots’ offense appears to have fallen again to earth by way of three weeks in 2026. The whole lot has been recognized as the rationale for its present illnesses: a harder schedule, a younger quarterback flummoxed as “the league tailored to him,” an offense seeing no enchancment from returning gamers, or new faces underwhelming or injured.
As with every part in soccer, everybody has a portion of the blame pie for the Patriots’ lackluster begin on offense. Identical to everybody has their portion of the credit score pie when issues are going proper.
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Who’s in charge for this putrid begin for the Patriots? Effectively, to not spoil the tons of, nay hundreds, of phrases under, however nearly everybody in New England has a pleasant slice on their plates as we enter October.
All knowledge is through TruMedia until in any other case famous.
Busting myths about why Maye is faltering
Let’s begin with Maye, who is among the youngest beginning quarterbacks within the NFL. He blistered his manner by way of his second season and capped it off with a second-team All-Professional choice and MVP runner-up. His underwhelming playoff performances have been scrutinized and the “comfortable” regular-season schedule is usually introduced up as a cause to not anoint him fairly but because the league’s subsequent star quarterback. The schedule dialogue took on a lifetime of its personal regardless of the passing defenses Maye confronted falling extra round league common. It is not like he was going through a MAC schedule (plus the shortage of firepower round him, however don’t be concerned, we’ll get to that).
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There have been theories thrown round to clarify Maye’s turnover-heavy begin to 2026. I’ve heard that he cannot “remedy” Cowl 6, a two-high protection that has Cowl 2 to at least one aspect and Cowl 4 to the opposite. I will snuff out that principle immediately: Maye has completely no points towards Cowl 6. The numbers thrown round are weighted closely by going through the Seahawks twice, a group that runs Cowl 6 greater than anyone and, oh yeah, was probably the greatest defenses on document final season. The Seahawks are additionally a group Maye and the Patriots have confronted twice over his dreaded “because the begin of final yr’s playoffs” drop-off.
Maye had completely zero points towards the Chargers and Texans, or actually any protection except for the second matchup versus the Payments, that ran Cowl 6 final season. There isn’t any theme of not with the ability to learn out the protection. There is a theme of the Seahawks dominating with their Cowl 6 as a result of it fully wipes out the Patriots’ most well-liked formations and ideas. However, even for those who embrace these two Seahawks matchups, Maye has been about league common by way of success fee towards groups in Cowl 6; his 46% dropback success fee is simply above the league common of 45.4% because the begin of final yr, together with the playoffs. That mark is above Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy, as an illustration. And his explosive move fee (13.8%) is slightly below league-average and slightly below Trevor Lawrence.
Maye’s decision-making has really been, for essentially the most half, fairly good, even throughout this mess of a begin. He is been environment friendly, rating twelfth in dropback success fee amongst 28 quarterbacks with 50 or extra move makes an attempt, and that is regardless of taking part in the hardest defensive schedule to this point, per FTN’s DVOA. His 46% success fee is above Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts and Bo Nix. And never a soul is saying Stafford or Burrow is off to a poor begin this season!
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Down-to-down decision-making issues on the place that touches the soccer each single play (and I do not imply middle, although their decision-making issues, too, however I digress).
Why the sudden uptick in turnovers?
The turnovers have been tough. Fumbling will seemingly at all times be a factor with Maye, as he has simply over 9-inch arms, performs an aggressive fashion as a thrower and runner, and has led all QBs in fumbles misplaced after being sacked (8) since he entered the NFL.
The interceptions this season have all been a distinct story. Every turnover is a distinct microcosm of a younger quarterback urgent, being too aggressive on the unsuitable moments whereas additionally working in a predictable, archaic scheme that lacks creativity and ability gamers with any semblance of needle-moving expertise. That is very true with early accidents to the gamers (and likewise simply basic misuse and lack of know-how of these gamers’ ability units) who had been meant to inject life and explosive performs into this offense.
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Let’s carry out an post-mortem on every of these six interceptions.
The primary interception was a pure pressure by Maye when there was a simple checkdown obtainable. The second interception was an outstanding learn and play by Julian Love, one of many smartest defenders within the NFL who instantly made a learn (he is keying the No. 2 eligible pass-catcher to his aspect; when that participant did not launch vertically, he then learn Maye’s eyes and made a terrific play).
The third interception was a major instance of the problems plaguing the Patriots’ offense, and that Maye has been compounding: Mack Hollins launched his route inside, which finally ends up convoluting the entire idea. Nonetheless, Maye ought to throw that soccer away.
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The fourth one was a ton of points. Sure, Maye may get to a checkdown, however it will assist to not have strain in his lap — Maye has been pressured on 42% of his dropbacks to this point this season — and it will additionally assist for Hunter Henry to truly look on his route.
The fifth interception ought to have been a throwaway, nevertheless it was additionally a horrible design and use of personnel. Jaguars defenders even stated afterward that they knew precisely what was coming. Travis Hunter, who made the interception, stated after the sport, “We bought these performs in follow. The coach did a terrific job scheming it up for us. He known as the proper name for us. All of us talked and we communicated on my aspect of the ball and I simply made it occur.”
And that is on high of Rhamondre Stevenson, not a burner, getting used to run the horizontally stretching route (into the quick aspect of the sector, thoughts you), Hollins (the man in there for blocking) not blocking anyone and Efton Chism III stumbling on his route.
That individual play is an ideal snapshot of every part going unsuitable with the Patriots: lackluster personnel with a predictable play topped off by Maye compounding the problems by making an attempt to do an excessive amount of.
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And, lastly, the sixth interception was the precise learn towards that protection. However Kyle Williams is 5 yards quick on his stutter-stop route and permits the cornerback to get inside him. Not superb!
The quarterback has to handle the soccer. There’s an adage with quarterbacks to “not make a foul play worse.” And it is cropped up too typically for Maye this season regardless of his precise down-to-down effectivity and good decision-making. You possibly can level at his EPA proper now, however there are different quarterbacks who’ve began a season with poor EPA due to a excessive turnover fee in a small pattern measurement of video games. I can level at different QBs who’ve began with comparable and even worse numbers over the primary three video games, and so they turned out greater than wonderful. There’s Burrow (whose success fee wasn’t even near Maye’s this season) and Lawrence within the 2023 season and Dak Prescott in 2018. So, Maye’s EPA could also be warped proper now due to the turnovers, which have to enhance, however his down-to-down effectivity and decision-making have nonetheless been greater than wonderful. Particularly given absolutely the hell he has round him.
Even his different knocks, similar to his excessive scramble and sack charges, are extra comprehensible given the circumstances and the truth that he is among the greatest scramblers since he is entered the NFL (and people scrambles are far more comprehensible whenever you see what he is working with down the sector). He is even been extremely environment friendly, with 9 of his 10 scrambles this yr leading to a profitable play. Even the sacks he has taken have a silver lining: he would not lose a ton of yards, rating second in yards misplaced per sack at 4.2.
The underlying subject, although, is that Maye HAS to make high-end throws to generate explosives and HAS to be excellent with the soccer in an offense that’s consistently feeling tight and static because it lacks any creativity within the run and move video games. And it lacks the personnel to assist alleviate that strain.
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Listed here are Maye’s throws which have gained 15 or extra yards for the Patriots this season. Solely two had been thrown beneath 15 yards. His 21.4 air yards per try on beneficial properties of 15 or extra yards is the very best within the NFL.
Location of Drake Maye completions of 15 yards or extra this season. (TruMedia)
For comparability, Burrow’s air yards is at 15.9 yards on passes which have gained 15 or extra yards.
Location of Joe Burrow completions of 15 yards or extra this season. (TruMedia)
And Patrick Mahomes is at 12 air yards per try on his 15-plus yard beneficial properties.
Location of Patrick Mahomes completions of 15 yards or extra this season. (TruMedia)
It is actually good when you do not have to make fixed downfield forays to generate large performs . And Maye has to do it a ton. He did final yr, too!
However these throws can result in volatility, particularly if that decision-making will get rushed or the quarterback feels pressed.
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Supporting forged and scheme are a part of the issue
Wanting on the scheme and gamers round Maye, “underwhelming” is the good phrase I will use to explain it. Henry, by no means a burner however a gentle goal for Maye, has taken a noticeable decline in play and athleticism. Henry’s pace has dipped over the previous few seasons, from a high mark of 18.84 mph in 2024, to 18.12 mph in 2025, to 17.73 in 2026. His common route pace has dropped from 12.06 mph in 2025 to 11.53 this yr. And he simply hasn’t been as dependable.
There’s a basic lack of juice with the Patriots pass-catchers. Per Subsequent Gen Stats, Henry really leads the Patriots’ pass-catchers in missed tackles compelled this yr, with 1 (one). There is not any tie there, both. That is proper, the Patriots’ huge receivers have compelled the identical quantity of missed tackles this yr as you, pricey reader. They’ve made zero tacklers miss this season. Z-E-R-O. Thirty-year-old Chris Godwin, coming off an injury-riddled season in 2025, has compelled 5 missed tackles this yr. Emmett Johnson, the rookie backup operating again for the Chiefs, has compelled six!
There’s hope that reinforcements will likely be coming quickly. A.J. Brown performed simply over a half earlier than occurring injured reserve with a excessive ankle sprain. Tight finish Eli Raridon, who has flashed early as a blocker and receiver in his younger profession, has additionally battled a thigh harm and a devastating private loss (sidebar: please preserve the Raridon household in your ideas). Each gamers may come again over the subsequent month. In order that, and in principle, a neater schedule by way of defenses over the subsequent few weeks, ought to assist. However there’s simply the sheer utilization of their different ability gamers that makes me sound the alarm about what is going on on with New England’s offense.
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There’s Romeo Doubs, the opposite offseason addition the Patriots made to the receiver room. And, by way of three weeks, I’ve to ask if offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the Patriots’ coaches watched Doubs and the way he was greatest utilized in Inexperienced Bay. Like, in any respect.
Doubs, even going again to his time at Nevada, has been greatest used on breaking routes on the quick and intermediate stage. His reference to Jordan Love on outbreakers was significantly notable.
What do the Patriots do with Doubs? For those who say use him on breaking routes, the plain reply, you would be unsuitable! They as a substitute use him on vertical routes like gos and stops, like he is Randy Moss.
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Doubs ran outbreakers on 22.5% of his routes in 2025, per Subsequent Gen Stats. That quantity is 11.7% this yr. And 44.2% of his routes are vertical this season, in comparison with 31% final yr.
This issues! Doubs has been very productive on breaking routes and is round league common on go and hitch/cease routes over the previous two seasons, identical to he was in faculty!
Combining his 2024 and 2025 numbers in Inexperienced Bay, Doubs had 75 catches on 108 targets for 956 yards on 466 breaking routes (each in-breaking and outbreaking) for a 110.7 QB ranking. Doubs averaged 2.1 yards per route on breaking routes, the identical quantity as Justin Jefferson over that point and slightly below names like Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb and DeVonta Smith.
He averaged a primary down on 12.4% of his routes. That ranks thirteenth amongst all receivers with a minimum of 400 routes over that interval. He is sandwiched between Ja’Marr Chase and Waddle within the rankings, and effectively above the league common of 8.8%.
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On 249 routes outlined as go and hitch routes, Doubs averaged 1.4 yards per route, under the common of 1.5. He recorded a primary down on 6.8%, hanging out with receivers like Adonai Mitchell and once more hovering across the league common of 6.5%.
Doubs has been focused simply thrice on outbreakers this season. The outcomes? Three catches for 100 yards.
It is not simply Doubs, both. Williams, who I discussed earlier than along with his lack of particulars on Maye’s final interception, has been pigeonholed as an remoted huge receiver who runs nothing however vertical routes. Whereas Williams was a big-play machine in faculty, typically on vertical routes, these large performs did not come simply as an remoted receiver. However for no matter cause, the Patriots cater their offense to DeMario Douglas and even Hollins. This lack of position variety impacts their different gamers, together with Williams. He has 22 whole routes in his profession from the slot, with three targets. Why is that notable? In faculty, Williams ran 143 routes his final two years at Washington State from the slot whereas racking up 3.51 yards per route run and 13.3% first downs per route run (in comparison with 2.34 yards and a 9.3% first-down fee from exterior alignment). The NFL is a completely totally different animal than faculty, after all. However, for a group missing large performs, it looks as if one thing to a minimum of attempt to assist create area and get a younger participant going.
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There’s even proof of idea for this final yr! Williams’ 72-yard landing towards the Buccaneers in Week 10 of the 2025 season got here on an over route when he was aligned in a condensed break up (a option to “create” a slot when solely two receivers are on the sector).
If Williams seemingly lacks particulars along with his route-running, it looks as if a simple answer to simply let him run and use his pace.
It is not simply the passing recreation, both. The Patriots’ offensive line and designs within the run recreation additionally depart quite a bit to be desired. The Seahawks uncovered the Patriots’ move safety scheme in each current matchups. Defensive video games and twists consistently give them points, particularly with middle Jared Wilson and on the precise aspect that has confronted accidents.
To their credit score, the Patriots have tried to sprinkle in a safety scheme known as Sprint Cross to maneuver the pocket for Maye, assist the safety and let Maye proceed to assault downfield.
The run recreation continues to be simplistic in its design. It is sound, however sound can go solely to this point if the gamers aren’t placing it excessive. That is the place design and creativity take extra significance in a league predicated on matchups.
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The Patriots love operating the duo run idea, which in itself just isn’t a problem. Duo is nice to run within the present NFL ecosystem with how defenses are taking part in their bins and coverages. The Patriots have been above common on duo runs by way of success fee (45.7% in comparison with the league common of 40.8%). The difficulty is that they telegraph their duo runs and there aren’t any large performs occurring on them. They common solely 3.5 yards per keep on duo runs and have been stuffed seven occasions, essentially the most within the NFL, per Subsequent Gen Stats. They’re the one group within the league to common adverse yards earlier than contact on duo runs this season. They’ve performed good defenses to begin this season, however that is placing quite a bit on the Patriots’ operating backs to make one thing occur.
The Patriots use movement on 45.6% of their early-down runs to this point this season, per Subsequent Gen Stats. They use movement on the snap on 26.3% of these performs. Each are lifeless final within the NFL. Now, movement is not pixie mud that makes every part higher, nevertheless it certain may help when the personnel is missing and defenses are keying in your favourite run performs!
And, identical to the Sprint Cross within the passing recreation, there have been flashes of latest concepts within the run recreation. They usually’ve been working! TreVeyon Henderson’s lengthy landing towards the Steelers got here on a deal with pull idea (generally called a dart run idea) that appeared to catch the Steelers fully unexpectedly as a result of it was such an inclination breaker for the Patriots.
Do this extra! Do one thing totally different! It will not damage to attempt! There must be higher methods to alleviate issues for Patriots gamers who aren’t profitable on their very own.
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If you’d like a play indicative of how offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels goes to play simply his hits, irrespective of the personnel, take a look at the Patriots operating an idea generally known as “Hoss Juke” for Douglas towards the Jaguars. Hoss Juke options mirrored seam routes on the within and cease routes on the surface, with a “Juke” route over the center that is meant to isolate the highest pass-catcher towards a hopeless linebacker. In principle, anyway.
For those who want an instance of how telegraphed the Patriots’ empty formation was, the Jaguars dropped 9 defenders into protection (seemingly alleged to be eight, however I believe dropping 9 was becoming).
Maye discovered Douglas on this play, however Douglas dropped it. In an ideal world, Maye rallies and throws the cease/hitch path to his teammate on the high of his display. However, pre-snap, I would not like a operating again towards Travis Hunter, both.
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Why Maye and Patriots can bounce again
What are the silver linings for the Patriots? The schedule for the offense will get a bit simpler beginning Sunday. Brown ought to come again over the subsequent couple of weeks, and similar with Raridon. And their protection has really been doing a little fascinating issues (it presently ranks first in EPA vs. the move and fifth in success fee, with the run protection being strong, however missing explosive performs, too).
And the offense has moved the ball pretty effectively in every recreation earlier than Maye’s turnovers, penalties (just like the one which negated a Maye scramble landing towards the Jaguars) and a missed subject purpose for good measure. I’ve laid out points, nevertheless it’s positively not the worst offense ever and even near it. I take advantage of a home-brewed metric known as SUPLEX that mixes success fee and explosive play fee right into a easy measure, and the Patriots rank slightly below league common, at twenty first total.
And the quarterback will likely be wonderful. In truth, I believe he will likely be greater than wonderful, even with the turnovers and bizarre stuff surrounding his shoulder. (That flea flicker in Week 1 wasn’t an underthrow, by the best way. A.J. Brown simply ran his route WAY too early on it and the play was known as a bit too near the tip zone for my liking. A standard byproduct of operating flea glints is receivers too eagerly operating their route earlier than the quarterback even will get the ball).
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His down-to-down decision-making has nonetheless been wonderful. And whenever you look initially of his profession — a pattern measurement that features the Jerod Mayo expertise, a yr when Maye completed with the eighth-best rookie season by way of success fee since 2013 — the beginning of this yr and his “simple” schedule of 2025, Maye has been off to probably the greatest begins for a younger quarterback on document.
No caveats. You possibly can even embrace his playoff numbers and it nonetheless holds up. He ranks third in dropback success fee among the many 30 quarterbacks with 1,000 or extra move makes an attempt by way of their first three seasons since 2013, behind solely Mahomes and Brock Purdy. That 49.2% quantity jumps as much as 50.5% for those who take away the playoff video games.
For those who take a look at simply his success fee on throws, he is fourth, together with the playoffs, and second whenever you take away the playoffs. He is additionally the second-best scrambler by way of effectivity over that point interval whereas scrambling over 10% of his dropbacks (a quantity that might want to come down barely for longevity functions). He is third in EPA per dropback (see, pattern measurement!). He is seventh in explosive move fee. He is even second in completion fee, at 68%, for the “accuracy” wonks!
Even all 69 quarterbacks with 1,000 or extra move makes an attempt since 2013, there’s Drake Maye effectively into the top-right. He is subsequent to or above names like Peyton Manning, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, Lamar Jackson, and Purdy (and Jimmy Garoppolo).
Appears good to me!
The ceiling is there on high of the effectivity. Now Maye and the remainder of the Patriots group have to begin rebuilding the ground earlier than it begins sinking even additional.